2024 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds and Picks

With Joey Chestnut absent following a ban from the event, the men's side of the annual Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest is wide open. On the women's bracket, Miki Sudo is again the overwhelming betting favorite for today.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya ? Betting Analyst
Jul 4, 2024 ? 08:56 ET ? 4 min read
Miki Sudo Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest
Photo By - SIPA USA

In 1776, the United States of America won its independence from Britain and King George III.

In 2024, another king was pushed aside with Joey Chestnut banned from competing in the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest by Major League Eating.

The annual event, held on the Fourth of July at Coney Island to celebrate Independence Day, is the great American tradition of stuffing our faces with mystery meat: Competitors try to eat as many hot dogs (with buns) as they can within 10 minutes with dunking the buns in water encouraged and any throwing up resulting in an instant disqualification.

While Chestnut's reign as 16-time champion will end, his departure means that the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest odds are actually competitive this year; Geoffrey Esper is the new favorite at around -110, with James Webb just behind.

Meanwhile, Miki Sudo is expected to continue dominating the women's division as she comes in around the -900 range as of this morning... but there has been some late movement as Mayoi Ebihara has closed the gap.

Here are the 2024 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest odds to win the mustard belt in the men's and women's divisions:

Nathan's Men's Hot Dog Eating Contest odds

Men's outright winner DraftKings bet365
Geoffrey Esper -115 -110
James Webb +165 +150
Nick Wehry +900 +850
Patrick Bertoletti +900 +850
Any Other Contestant +2,500 +2,500
Gideon Oji +4,000 +5,000
Darrien Thomas +7,500 +7,500
Max Stanford +7,500 +7,500
Dereck Hendrickson +7,500 +7,500
George Chiger +7,500 +7,500

Nathan's Women's Hot Dog Eating Contest odds

Women's Outright Winner DraftKings bet365
Miki Sudo -900 -800
Mayoi Ebihara +500 +500
Michelle Lesco +4,000 +5,000
Any Other Contestant +5,000 +4,000
Katie Prettyman +5,000 OTB
Larell Marie Mele +10,000 OTB

All odds as of 7-4.

Favorites to win the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest

During Chestnut's reign, the betting board typically had his odds to win priced at more than -1,000 with the rest of the field all grouped together at big plus money. With Chestnut gone, there are odds available for nine individual competitors with Geoffrey Esper leading the way at -110. 

On the women's side, Miki Sudo is again the runaway favorite at -900. Sudo has won nine of the last 10 events and the one year during that span where she didn't win she sat out because she was pregnant. Her women's world record of 48.5 hot dogs is even more than the career-high 45 of her husband Nick Wehry, who is third on the men's odds board.

Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest picks and predictions

Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest winner: James Webb (+200 at DraftKings)

It makes sense that Esper is the favorite at +100. After all, he has been the runner-up in each of the last three years and had a career-high of 50 in 2021 while inhaling 49 glizzies last year. However, Webb was close behind Esper last year, finishing third with 47, and he's the value bet here.

While Esper is getting up there in age at 49, Webb is smack dab in the middle of his eating prime at 35 years old and he made his Nathan's Famous debut just two years. It's expected to be a humid 80 degrees on Thursday and that heat could be taxing on the Massachusetts-based Esper while Webb should be less affected since he grew up in Sydney, Australia. 

Webb also has plenty of momentum, since he's been on a competitive eating tear in 2024. He has already set multiple eating records this year, which includes a Texas sausage-eating contest in May where he inhaled a record 51 sausages in 10 minutes — beating out Esper for first place. Nothing seems like a better warmup for a hot-dog-eating contest in New York than a sausage-eating dry run in the Lone Star State. 

Pick made on 7-2.

Total hot dogs eaten by Mayoi Ebihara: Over 34.5 (+110 at DraftKings)

We'll have a new victor in the men's division but could Sudo be knocked off her perch as well? Ebihara should give her the closest race she's had in years. Keep in mind that Sudo is typically also listed against the field and she has often been given a spread against her usual closest competitor Michelle Lesco. Last year, Sudo pulled away with 39.5 but Ebihara wasn't far behind at 33.5 while Lesco was in third at 24. 

That was Ebihara's first year in the event and at just 28-years-old she's a rising star in the sport and looks like a future champ. If she could devour 33.5 dogs as a rookie, she will no doubt eclipse that number with a year of experience under her belt.

Pick made on 7-2.

Will Joey Chestnut participate in the 2024 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest?

The competitive eating world was shocked when it was announced that Chestnut would be unable to defend his title after being banned by Major League Eating and Nathan's. No, Chestnut wasn't caught with performance-enhancing glizzies — he simply signed a sponsorship deal with rival brand Impossible Foods. 

Major League Eating issued the following statement in reference to Chestnut's decision to sign with Impossible Foods and his subsequent ban from this event:

Chestnut had dominated the competitive eating world for more than a decade and had won Nathan's Famous an incredible 16 times. Nobody else in the history of the Nathan's competition has ever eaten more than 64 while Chestnut has cracked the 70-plateau on six occasions — including a record 76 in 2021.

Nicknamed "Jaws," Chestnut has become a rockstar in a sport with few household names and at just 40 years old he's still in his eating prime. After the news of his ban was announced, Chestnut responded with a statement that he doesn't have a contract with either Nathan's or MLE.

Although Chestnut won't attend the event July 4, he will be competing against six-time Nathan's winner Takeru Kobayashi in a one-on-one contest on September 2 live on Netflix. 

Past Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Results

Previous winners of the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest, since 2011 when women began competing separately, and how many hot dogs they consumed.

Year Men's Winner Hot Dogs Women's Winner Hot Dogs
2023 Joey Chestnut 62 Miki Sudo 39.5
2022 Joey Chestnut 63 Miki Sudo 40
2021 Joey Chestnut  76 Michelle Lesco 30.75
2020 Joey Chestnut 75 Miki Sudo 48.5
2019 Joey Chestnut 71 Miki Sudo 31
2018 Joey Chestnut 74 Miki Sudo 37
2017 Joey Chestnut 72 Miki Sudo 41
2016 Joey Chestnut 70 Miki Sudo 38.5
2015 Matt Stonie 62 Miki Sudo 38
2014 Joey Chestnut 61 Miki Sudo 34
2013 Joey Chestnut 69 Sonya Thomas 36.75
2012 Joey Chestnut 68 Sonya Thomas 45
2011 Joey Chestnut 62 Sonya Thomas 40

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Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports.

Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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