The road to the Oscars is on after the nominations were announced on Tuesday, January 23 With the fields set, we can take a look at the Oscars odds as we get closer and closer to the ceremony.
Best Actor is one of the marquee categories at the awards. Ultimately, the nominations shook out as expected, with chalk winning out. And after it looked like there might be some intrigue, the odds are favoring Cillian Murphy to ultimately prevail.
Let's break down the Best Actor odds race with the 2024 Academy Awards set for Sunday, March 10.
In addition to Best Actor, we are also eyeing Best Picture predictions and Best Actress predictions along with odds analysis for both categories.
Finally, don't forget to take advantage of our free printable 2024 Oscars ballot for your home contests!
2024 Oscars Best Actor odds
| Actor |  |
 |
|---|---|---|
| Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) | -1,200 | -1,205 |
| Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) | +600 | +600 |
| Bradley Cooper (Maestro) | +2,000 | +1,800 |
| Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) | +8,000 | +8,000 |
| Colman Domingo (Rustin) | +8,000 | +8,000 |
Odds as of March 10, 2024.
Cillian Murphy (-1,200)
Cillian Murphy is in the center of almost every frame of Christopher Nolan's Oppenheimer, the presumptive favorite in the Best Picture odds, and he's a massive reason why the movie works as well as it does. Without a towering central performance — buoyed by some great work from Robert Downey Jr. and the rest of the star-studded supporting cast — the gravitas of J. Robert Oppenheimer and his connection to the creation of the Atomic Bomb during World War II may have been lost.
He has won widespread acclaim from awards bodies and critics associations and it wouldn't be the least bit surprising if he does win. It marks the first time an actor has been nominated for a role in a Nolan film. He was trading around -200 when nominations were announced and has only picked up steam in the ensuing months.
Paul Giamatti (+600)
Before The Golden Globes, Paul Giamatti was trading at +700 to win Best Actor at the Oscars. After winning at the Globes for Best Actor - Musical or Comedy (Murphy won in drama), those odds shortened and have been approaching even money ever since. A longstanding favorite in Hollywood, Giamatti has only ever received one Academy Award nomination (Best Supporting Actor for Cinderella Man) with no wins. But his performance as Paul Hunham, a grumpy and solitary boarding school instructor, has struck a chord in audiences and critics.
He also won Best Actor at the Critic's Choice Awards, beating out Murphy. Additionally, Giamatti has been highly visible this awards season, whether at In-N-Out Burger, on WTF With Marc Maron in an exceptional interview, or elsewhere.
Bradley Cooper (+2,000)
Before the awards season got underway, Bradley Cooper — not Giamatti — seemed like the surefire second option to Murphy for Best Actor. While his performance as composer Leonard Bernstein has been lauded, it hasn't had the same momentum at various awards ceremonies. The nomination was expected, but a win isn't in the cards. Maestro, in general, might not take home any of its seven noms (except maybe makeup and hairstyling).
Jeffrey Wright (+8,000)
Like Giamatti, Jeffrey Wright has been beloved in Hollywood for ages, and his profile has grown and shrunk and back again. Primarily, Wright has been more of a character actor in supporting roles, with his performance in the Angels in America miniseries garnering him the most awards recognition to date.
He's running a distance behind the front-runners, but I'd position him at more even with Cooper and the odds simply don't reflect that. American Fiction has been well-received by audiences everywhere, and won several film festival awards during the autumn, including the People's Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival, something that has often been a precursor of things to come.
Colman Domingo (+8,000)
Rounding out the nominees, Colman Domingo gets the nod over Leonardo DiCaprio and Andrew Scott, who were running close to him in the odds for much of the season. It's the first Academy Award nomination for the longtime film, television, and stage actor. He recently won an Emmy for a guest spot on Euphoria. While his performance in Rustin has been well received, lauded as the best aspect of the biopic of civil rights activist Bayard Rustin, it will not result in a win. Nevertheless, it's nice to see such a talented actor be recognized at this level.
Prediction: Paul Giamatti (+600)
I predicted Giamatti when The Holdovers was released and I'm going to go down with the ship. Murphy winning at the Screen Actors Guild Awards might be the final nail in the Giamatti coffin, but there is some value with him back at +600 after seeing his odds shorten toward +200 in February.
