Meanwhile, the Raiders have turned the ball over at least once in every game this season and have multiple turnovers in five different games. The Broncos should be able to win the turnover battle, which will give them extra red zone opportunities. The Broncos rank 10th in the NFL in red zone touchdown percentage at 58.3%. The Raiders rank 26th, allowing a 65.8% touchdown percentage in the red zone on defense. The opposing team has hit their Team Total Over in seven of the 10 Raiders games this season. The Broncos offense has excelled against bad teams, and there is no reason to believe that Sunday will not be another example of this. I love the Broncos to at least reach 24 points.
The Broncos exploded for 38 points in last week's rout of the Falcons but there's nowhere to go but down for an offense that's been wildly inconsistent. Keep in mind that Atlanta is 28th in the NFL in pass rush win rate and run stop win rate while the Las Vegas Raiders are first in pass rush win rate and sixth in run stop win rate. The Broncos won't be able to do whatever they want up front this week and rookie QB Bo Nix has performed significantly worse away from home. While Nix averages 7.6 yards per pass attempt with a passer rating of 106.1 in Denver, those numbers plummet to 5.3 and 74.9 on the road. That said, Denver is third in the league in defensive EPA and should have no problem shutting down a Raiders offense that ranks dead-last in EPA.
Leading things off is my favorite TD of the week with Javonte Williams at +160. I, like many, was duped last week into thinking Audric Estime was going to be the lead back in this Denver Broncos backfield. He took 10 of the 13 RB opportunities in the first half last week vs. the Falcons, who the Broncos make look silly. Bo Nix is slinging the ball and the offense is moving it, having scored at least 28 points in each of their last four wins. Williams was the only back to get red-zone carries last week and took one to the house for a +185 TD. There hasn't been a huge adjustment on his TD price despite retaking the No.1 role and facing the Raiders indoors. The Raiders have dropped six straight games and have been outscored 188-109 across that stretch for an average score of 31-18. Denver will put up points again this week and Williams to get a TD at +135 or better is a solid TD play.