The San Francisco 49ers have struggled to stop the run this season and sit just 28th in EPA per rush on defense. In the 49ers’ last four games, they’ve allowed three 100-yard rushers. That makes this the perfect matchup for Achane to remind the country why he’s considered one of the best young playmakers in the game. The second-year back out of Texas A&M has gone for 52-plus rushing yards five times this season. Achane has 452 rushing yards after contact this year with 25 forced missed tackles and 16 runs of 10-plus-yard runs, per PFF, proving he’s capable of creating on his own. And with the 49ers’ 123 missed tackles this season, he should be able to take advantage of a defense with more than a half dozen players that have a missed tackle rate of over 10%.
The 49ers are coming off a 12-6 loss to the Rams and have scored 10 points or less in three of their last four games. Brock Purdy has been held below 160 passing yards in three of those contests and fourth-string RB Patrick Taylor Jr. is in line to start after a rash of injuries in the backfield. They won't find it east to score against the Miami Dolphins who are 12th in the league in defensive EPA. While the Dolphins have played better than expected on D, they haven't been the offensive juggernaut they were supposed to be. Miami is 31st in the league in rush EPA and Tua Tagovailoa has been limited by a banged-up receiving corps. All-Pro wideout Tyreek Hill is questionable with a wrist injury while No. 2 WR Jaylen Waddle is doubtful. Miami's offense also plays at a slow tempo, ranking 28th in seconds per snap (28.5) while San Fran is dead-last with 29.4 seconds/snap.
The Dolphins defense is dreadful and has been especially soft over the last three showings. Miami has given up an average of 5.8 yards per play and ranks 26th in EPA allowed per snap since Week 13. What’s more, Miami doesn’t bring much pressure and mixes zone and man coverage in the secondary. It’s notably vulnerable in zone schemes, ranking 30th in team coverage rate at PFF. Purdy is one of the best QBs in the league versus zone defense, owning the No. 1 passer rating against those schemes. As for the San Francisco stop unit, it got key bodies back last week and should be even stronger in Week 16. Dre Greenlaw made his return last Thursday and DE Joey Bosa was back as well.