LIVE 04:04 4th Dec 22
MIN 20 -2.5 o43.0
SEA 24 2.5 u43.0
LIVE 10:10 4th Dec 22
NE 14 14.0 o47.5
BUF 24 -14.0 u47.5
LIVE 00:50 3rd Dec 22
JAC 14 2.5 o41.5
LV 13 -2.5 u41.5
LIVE 13:23 4th Dec 22
SF 10 -2.0 o44.0
MIA 19 2.0 u44.0
TB -4.0 o48.0
DAL 4.0 u48.0
NO 14.0 o43.0
GB -14.0 u43.0
Final Dec 19
DEN 27
LAC 34
Final Dec 21
HOU 19 3.5 o42.5
KC 27 -3.5 u42.5
Final Dec 21
PIT 17 7.5 o44.0
BAL 34 -7.5 u44.0
Final Dec 22
TEN 30 4.0 o43.5
IND 38 -4.0 u43.5
Final Dec 22
PHI 33 -4.0 o47.0
WAS 36 4.0 u47.0
Final Dec 22
LA 19 -3.0 o47.0
NYJ 9 3.0 u47.0
Final Dec 22
CLE 6 10.0 o45.5
CIN 24 -10.0 u45.5
Final Dec 22
NYG 7 10.0 o43.0
ATL 34 -10.0 u43.0
Final OT Dec 22
ARI 30 -5.5 o47.0
CAR 36 5.5 u47.0
Final Dec 22
DET 34 -6.5 o47.5
CHI 17 6.5 u47.5
Atlanta 2nd NFC South8-7
Carolina 4th NFC South4-11
FOX

Atlanta @ Carolina props

Bank of America Stadium

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Ja'Tavion Sanders Receptions Made Props ? Carolina

J. Sanders
tight end TE ? Carolina
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.1
Best Odds
Under
-110

Right now, the 9th-least pass-focused team in the league (58.6% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Carolina Panthers. As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Atlanta's collection of safeties has been phenomenal this year, profiling as the 6th-best in the NFL.

Ja'Tavion Sanders

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.1
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.1

Right now, the 9th-least pass-focused team in the league (58.6% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Carolina Panthers. As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Atlanta's collection of safeties has been phenomenal this year, profiling as the 6th-best in the NFL.

Diontae Johnson Receptions Made Props ? Carolina

D. Johnson
wide receiver WR ? Carolina
Prop
5.5
Receptions Made
Projection
5.3
Best Odds
Under
-120

Right now, the 9th-least pass-focused team in the league (58.6% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Carolina Panthers. Diontae Johnson's receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 61.3% to 53.5%. As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Atlanta's collection of safeties has been phenomenal this year, profiling as the 6th-best in the NFL.

Diontae Johnson

Prop: 5.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 5.3
Prop:
5.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
5.3

Right now, the 9th-least pass-focused team in the league (58.6% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Carolina Panthers. Diontae Johnson's receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 61.3% to 53.5%. As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Atlanta's collection of safeties has been phenomenal this year, profiling as the 6th-best in the NFL.

Bijan Robinson Receptions Made Props ? Atlanta

B. Robinson
running back RB ? Atlanta
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.2
Best Odds
Under
-140

The Falcons are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a running game script. Opposing offenses teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Carolina Panthers, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 30.4 per game) this year. Bijan Robinson's 14.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 24.9. When talking about protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Falcons grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year. Since the start of last season, the fierce Carolina Panthers defense has allowed a puny 78.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 5th-smallest rate in the NFL.

Bijan Robinson

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.2
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.2

The Falcons are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a running game script. Opposing offenses teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Carolina Panthers, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 30.4 per game) this year. Bijan Robinson's 14.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 24.9. When talking about protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Falcons grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year. Since the start of last season, the fierce Carolina Panthers defense has allowed a puny 78.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 5th-smallest rate in the NFL.

Chuba Hubbard Receptions Made Props ? Carolina

C. Hubbard
running back RB ? Carolina
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.1
Best Odds
Under
-155
Prop
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection
3.1
Best Odds
Under
-155
Projection Rating

Right now, the 9th-least pass-focused team in the league (58.6% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Carolina Panthers. This year, the fierce Falcons defense has allowed a paltry 81.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 10th-lowest rate in the league. As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Atlanta's collection of safeties has been phenomenal this year, profiling as the 6th-best in the NFL.

Chuba Hubbard

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.1
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.1

Right now, the 9th-least pass-focused team in the league (58.6% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Carolina Panthers. This year, the fierce Falcons defense has allowed a paltry 81.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 10th-lowest rate in the league. As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Atlanta's collection of safeties has been phenomenal this year, profiling as the 6th-best in the NFL.

Drake London Receptions Made Props ? Atlanta

D. London
wide receiver WR ? Atlanta
Prop
5.5
Receptions Made
Projection
5.9
Best Odds
Over
-118

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.4 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics. In this game, Drake London is projected by the model to land in the 98th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 9.4 targets. With an elite 27.2% Target Share (93rd percentile) this year, Drake London rates as one of the wide receivers with the most usage in football. Drake London's 6.5 adjusted receptions per game this season marks a significant improvement in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 4.3 rate. Drake London's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 64.6% to 74.0%.

Drake London

Prop: 5.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 5.9
Prop:
5.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
5.9

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.4 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics. In this game, Drake London is projected by the model to land in the 98th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 9.4 targets. With an elite 27.2% Target Share (93rd percentile) this year, Drake London rates as one of the wide receivers with the most usage in football. Drake London's 6.5 adjusted receptions per game this season marks a significant improvement in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 4.3 rate. Drake London's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 64.6% to 74.0%.

Kyle Pitts Receptions Made Props ? Atlanta

K. Pitts
tight end TE ? Atlanta
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.3
Best Odds
Under
-155

The Falcons are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a running game script. Opposing offenses teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Carolina Panthers, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 30.4 per game) this year. Kyle Pitts's 30.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 44.8. When talking about protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Falcons grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year.

Kyle Pitts

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.3
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.3

The Falcons are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a running game script. Opposing offenses teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Carolina Panthers, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 30.4 per game) this year. Kyle Pitts's 30.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 44.8. When talking about protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Falcons grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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