Detroit @ Houston props

When talking about protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the Texans ranks as the 4th-worst in the league this year. When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Detroit's unit has been terrific this year, projecting as the best in football.

When talking about protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the Texans ranks as the 4th-worst in the league this year. Dalton Schultz's 2.8 adjusted catches per game this year shows a remarkable decrease in his receiving ability over last year's 3.9 rate. Dalton Schultz's 56.7% Adjusted Completion% this year marks a meaningful diminishment in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 70.0% mark. This year, the imposing Lions defense has yielded a meager 65.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 3rd-lowest rate in the league. When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Detroit's unit has been terrific this year, projecting as the best in football.

When talking about protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the Texans ranks as the 4th-worst in the league this year. When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Detroit's unit has been terrific this year, projecting as the best in football.

This game's line indicates a running game script for the Lions, who are favored by 3.5 points. At the moment, the 9th-least pass-focused team in the league (58.9% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Lions. The 8th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Lions this year (only 54.8 per game on average). Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game versus the Texans defense this year: 10th-fewest in the NFL. Sam LaPorta's 11.5% Target Share this season signifies a substantial reduction in his pass attack volume over last season's 20.4% mark.

This game's line indicates a running game script for the Lions, who are favored by 3.5 points. At the moment, the 9th-least pass-focused team in the league (58.9% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Lions. The 8th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Lions this year (only 54.8 per game on average). Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game versus the Texans defense this year: 10th-fewest in the NFL. Amon-Ra St. Brown's play as a receiver has worsened this season, averaging just 6.0 adjusted catches compared to 7.4 last season.

This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Texans, who are -3.5-point underdogs. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Texans to pass on 59.1% of their chances: the 7th-greatest clip on the slate this week. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to have 129.4 total plays run: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week. The highest number of plays in football have been called by the Texans this year (a staggering 62.6 per game on average). Opposing offenses have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game against the Lions defense this year: most in the NFL.

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are expected by the projections to call 65.1 total plays in this game: the 8th-most among all teams this week. In this week's contest, Jahmyr Gibbs is projected by our trusted projection set to slot into the 86th percentile among RBs with 3.9 targets. With a terrific 2.6 adjusted catches per game (81st percentile) this year, Jahmyr Gibbs stands as one of the leading running backs in the pass game in the NFL. Jahmyr Gibbs's sure-handedness have improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 73.7% to 82.1%.