Jacksonville @ Detroit props

The Jacksonville Jaguars may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be rolling out backup quarterback Mac Jones. The Jaguars are a heavy 14-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script. Our trusted projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 2nd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 64.0% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Lions defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (39.3 per game) this year.

The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline. The Jaguars defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (36.3 per game) this year. The leading projections forecast Jahmyr Gibbs to accumulate 4.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile when it comes to RBs. Jahmyr Gibbs grades out as one of the leading pass-catching RBs this year, averaging a terrific 2.5 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 75th percentile. Jahmyr Gibbs's 80.9% Adjusted Completion Rate this year signifies a material improvement in his receiving ability over last year's 73.7% figure.

The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline. The Jaguars defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (36.3 per game) this year. The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has allowed the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (80%) to tight ends this year (80.0%). When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Jacksonville's group of safeties has been dreadful this year, profiling as the worst in the league.

The Jacksonville Jaguars may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be rolling out backup quarterback Mac Jones. The Jaguars are a heavy 14-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script. Our trusted projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 2nd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 64.0% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Lions defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (39.3 per game) this year.

The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline. The Jaguars defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (36.3 per game) this year. The projections expect Amon-Ra St. Brown to accumulate 9.6 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among WRs. With an extraordinary 28.3% Target Rate (97th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the wide receivers with the most usage in the league. Amon-Ra St. Brown's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 75.1% to 81.9%.

Our trusted projections expect the Jaguars to call the 7th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The fewest plays in football have been run by the Jaguars this year (a measly 51.7 per game on average). The Lions safeties grade out as the best safety corps in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.