Atlanta @ New Orleans props

A passing game script is suggested by the Saints being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Saints to pass on 58.9% of their downs: the 8th-highest clip on the slate this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by our trusted projection set to see 134.3 offensive plays called: the highest number among all games this week. The 10th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Saints this year (a colossal 59.1 per game on average). The Atlanta Falcons defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (37.1 per game) this year.

A passing game script is suggested by the Saints being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Saints to pass on 58.9% of their downs: the 8th-highest clip on the slate this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by our trusted projection set to see 134.3 offensive plays called: the highest number among all games this week. The 10th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Saints this year (a colossal 59.1 per game on average). The Atlanta Falcons defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (37.1 per game) this year.

A running game script is suggested by the Falcons being a 3.5-point favorite in this game. The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.9% pass rate. The Falcons have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.8 plays per game. Kyle Pitts's 34.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 44.8. The Falcons O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

A running game script is suggested by the Falcons being a 3.5-point favorite in this game. The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.9% pass rate. The Falcons have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.8 plays per game. The Falcons O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board. This year, the stout Saints defense has yielded a mere 62.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 10th-lowest rate in football.

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down. Opposing offenses have averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game against the Saints defense this year: 6th-most in football. In this contest, Bijan Robinson is expected by the model to land in the 96th percentile among RBs with 5.9 targets. With a remarkable 4.2 adjusted receptions per game (97th percentile) this year, Bijan Robinson places as one of the top pass-game running backs in the NFL.