Buffalo @ Indianapolis props

The predictive model expects the Colts to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 55.3% pass rate. The predictive model expects the Colts to run the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The 5th-fewest plays in football have been run by the Colts this year (a mere 53.2 per game on average). Jonathan Taylor's 62.4% Adjusted Completion% this season illustrates a meaningful reduction in his pass-catching talent over last season's 77.7% rate. This year, the strong Buffalo Bills defense has surrendered a puny 80.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 7th-lowest rate in football.

Right now, the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in football (62.3% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Bills. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. In this week's game, James Cook is forecasted by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 87th percentile when it comes to running backs with 4.0 targets. James Cook's 17.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 86th percentile for RBs. James Cook's 87.4% Adjusted Completion% this year marks a meaningful improvement in his receiving skills over last year's 83.8% mark.

The predictive model expects the Colts to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 55.3% pass rate. The predictive model expects the Colts to run the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The 5th-fewest plays in football have been run by the Colts this year (a mere 53.2 per game on average). Mo Alie-Cox comes in as one of the bottom TE receiving threats this year, averaging a measly 1.1 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 20th percentile among tight ends. This year, the strong Buffalo Bills defense has yielded a measly 71.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 6th-best rate in the league.

Right now, the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in football (62.3% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Bills. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. In this week's contest, Dalton Kincaid is forecasted by the projection model to slot into the 95th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 7.3 targets. Dalton Kincaid's 46.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 35.1. The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has given up the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (86.3%) vs. TEs this year (86.3%).

This game's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Colts, who are -4.5-point underdogs. The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down. The Bills defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (35.3 per game) this year. The model projects Josh Downs to accumulate 9.7 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile when it comes to wideouts. Josh Downs's 5.5 adjusted receptions per game this year marks a remarkable progression in his receiving proficiency over last year's 4.0 figure.

Right now, the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in football (62.3% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Bills. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. The predictive model expects Khalil Shakir to garner 8.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile when it comes to WRs. Khalil Shakir's play as a receiver has improved this year, totaling 5.3 adjusted catches vs a measly 2.4 last year. This year, the porous Colts pass defense has allowed a staggering 73.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the worst rate in the NFL.