Jacksonville @ Philadelphia props

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jaguars are expected by the model to call just 62.1 total plays in this contest: the 5th-lowest number among all teams this week. The 5th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Jaguars this year (a mere 54.0 per game on average). The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (60.8%) versus WRs this year (60.8%). The Philadelphia cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

The Jaguars are a big 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script. The model projects the Jaguars to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 61.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may decline. In this contest, Travis Etienne is expected by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 89th percentile among RBs with 4.2 targets. When talking about protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Jaguars ranks as the 4th-best in football this year.

The Jaguars are a big 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script. The model projects the Jaguars to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 61.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may decline. The model projects Evan Engram to accrue 8.3 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 98th percentile when it comes to tight ends. This year, the deficient Eagles pass defense has given up a whopping 80.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 8th-biggest rate in the league.

The Eagles are a heavy 7.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Eagles to pass on 50.9% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have only 125.2 total plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.

The Eagles have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 59.0 plays per game. Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) usually cause increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and lower run volume. The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, enticing opposing offenses to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (37.1 per game) this year. The leading projections forecast A.J. Brown to accumulate 9.4 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wideouts. A.J. Brown rates as one of the leading pass-catching WRs this year, averaging an exceptional 5.3 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.

The Eagles have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 59.0 plays per game. Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) usually cause increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and lower run volume. The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, enticing opposing offenses to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (37.1 per game) this year. The projections expect Saquon Barkley to total 3.4 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 80th percentile when it comes to RBs. Saquon Barkley's 90.0% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a material growth in his receiving proficiency over last season's 72.6% mark.