New Orleans @ Carolina props

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are projected by the model to call 66.0 total plays in this contest: the 6th-most on the slate this week. This week, Alvin Kamara is expected by the model to secure a spot in the 100th percentile among running backs with 7.3 targets. Alvin Kamara's 34.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 28.9. With a terrific 4.9 adjusted catches per game (100th percentile) this year, Alvin Kamara stands among the best running backs in the pass game in the league. This year, the feeble Carolina Panthers pass defense has surrendered a massive 94.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 2nd-biggest rate in the NFL.

The projections expect the Carolina Panthers to be the 10th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 54.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Carolina Panthers are expected by our trusted projection set to run only 63.6 total plays in this game: the 9th-fewest among all teams this week. The Carolina Panthers have run the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 54.0 plays per game.

With a 7-point advantage, the Saints are a huge favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their normal approach. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Saints to pass on 52.4% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest frequency among all teams this week. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 10th-fewest in the league. Chris Olave's 50.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 68.1. The Saints offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.

The projections expect the Carolina Panthers to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Carolina Panthers are expected by our trusted projection set to run only 63.6 total plays in this game: the 9th-fewest among all teams this week. The Carolina Panthers have run the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 54.0 plays per game.

This week's spread indicates an extreme throwing game script for the Panthers, who are heavy -7-point underdogs. The Saints defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (37.5 per game) this year. As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, New Orleans's group of LBs has been dreadful this year, projecting as the 10th-worst in the NFL.

This week's spread indicates an extreme throwing game script for the Panthers, who are heavy -7-point underdogs. The Saints defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (37.5 per game) this year. Chuba Hubbard has run a route on 52.4% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 90th percentile when it comes to running backs. In this game, Chuba Hubbard is predicted by the model to secure a spot in the 82nd percentile among running backs with 3.5 targets. With a terrific 3.0 adjusted catches per game (90th percentile) this year, Chuba Hubbard ranks among the best pass-catching RBs in the league.