Cleveland @ Denver props

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Broncos are favored in this game, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach. The model projects the Broncos to be the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 54.4% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Opposing QBs teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Cleveland Browns, totaling the fewest attempts in the league (a measly 30.5 per game) this year. Courtland Sutton's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 68.4% to 62.2%. The Cleveland Browns pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (59.1%) to wideouts this year (59.1%).

The Cleveland Browns offensive line ranks as the worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board. With a meager 0.6 adjusted catches per game (14th percentile) this year, Nick Chubb places among the bottom pass-game running backs in the NFL. Nick Chubb rates as one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL among RBs, hauling in a mere 61.8% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 6th percentile. The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the 3rd-best group of safeties in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Broncos are favored in this game, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach. The model projects the Broncos to be the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 54.4% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Opposing QBs teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Cleveland Browns, totaling the fewest attempts in the league (a measly 30.5 per game) this year. Adam Trautman's 7.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 17.9. Adam Trautman is positioned as one of the bottom TE receiving threats this year, averaging just 1.0 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 8th percentile among TEs.

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Broncos are favored in this game, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach. The model projects the Broncos to be the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 54.4% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Opposing QBs teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Cleveland Browns, totaling the fewest attempts in the league (a measly 30.5 per game) this year.

A throwing game script is indicated by the Browns being a -6.5-point underdog in this game. Our trusted projections expect the Cleveland Browns as the 3rd-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 64.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The projections expect this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 138.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Browns have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 61.4 plays per game. The Denver Broncos defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (37.2 per game) this year.

A throwing game script is indicated by the Browns being a -6.5-point underdog in this game. Our trusted projections expect the Cleveland Browns as the 3rd-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 64.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The projections expect this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 138.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Denver Broncos defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (37.2 per game) this year. David Njoku ranks as one of the leading pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging a stellar 5.0 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 94th percentile.