Baltimore @ Cleveland props

The Ravens are a 4-point favorite in this game, indicating a running game script. The leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens to be the least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 47.6% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (just 29.6 per game) this year. This year, the stout Cleveland Browns defense has surrendered a paltry 57.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 4th-smallest rate in football.

The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to call the 5th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.7 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics. Isaiah Likely's 35.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 16.0. The Baltimore Ravens offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board.

Jerry Jeudy's 86.8% Snap% this year represents a material gain in his offensive usage over last year's 66.2% mark. The Cleveland Browns O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all passing attack statistics across the board. Jerry Jeudy's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 64.6% to 50.4%. The Ravens cornerbacks rank as the 8th-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.

David Njoku's 36.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 41.5. The Cleveland Browns O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all passing attack statistics across the board.

The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to call the 5th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.7 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics. The Baltimore Ravens offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board.

The Browns will be forced to use backup QB Jameis Winston in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. A throwing game script is implied by the Browns being a -5.5-point underdog this week. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cleveland Browns to pass on 61.6% of their downs: the 6th-highest clip among all teams this week. At the moment, the 7th-quickest paced offense in the league (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Cleveland Browns. The Ravens defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, tempting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (41.1 per game) this year.