Detroit @ Minnesota props

The Minnesota Vikings have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 52.6 plays per game. Justin Jefferson's 5.1 adjusted catches per game this season conveys a significant decline in his pass-catching talent over last season's 6.6 figure. Justin Jefferson's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 67.7% to 58.0%. This year, the stout Detroit Lions defense has given up a measly 61.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 9th-lowest rate in the league. The Detroit Lions safeties project as the best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Detroit Lions to pass on 60.9% of their opportunities: the 7th-highest frequency on the slate this week. Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are predicted by the projection model to call 66.3 plays on offense in this contest: the 7th-highest number among all teams this week. The Detroit Lions have called the 9th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 59.6 plays per game. Opposing QBs have averaged 47.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: most in football. Jahmyr Gibbs profiles as one of the top pass-game RBs this year, averaging an excellent 2.9 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 82nd percentile.

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Detroit Lions to pass on 60.9% of their opportunities: the 7th-highest frequency on the slate this week. Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are predicted by the projection model to call 66.3 plays on offense in this contest: the 7th-highest number among all teams this week. The Detroit Lions have called the 9th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 59.6 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency. Opposing QBs have averaged 47.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: most in football.

The Minnesota Vikings have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 52.6 plays per game. Since the start of last season, the tough Detroit Lions defense has allowed a paltry 74.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the smallest rate in the league. The Detroit Lions safeties project as the best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Detroit Lions to pass on 60.9% of their opportunities: the 7th-highest frequency on the slate this week. Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are predicted by the projection model to call 66.3 plays on offense in this contest: the 7th-highest number among all teams this week. The Detroit Lions have called the 9th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 59.6 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency. Opposing QBs have averaged 47.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: most in football.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Vikings to pass on 62.9% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week. The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 130.4 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Detroit Lions defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (42.2 per game) this year. Johnny Mundt has run fewer routes this year (66.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (12.2%).