Tennessee @ Buffalo props

The Titans have been the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 56.6% pass rate. Our trusted projections expect the Titans to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. The 6th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Titans this year (a mere 54.0 per game on average). Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being forecasted in this game) generally prompt decreased passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and increased run volume.

Khalil Shakir's 17.8% Target% this season conveys a noteworthy progression in his air attack usage over last season's 7.8% figure. Khalil Shakir's receiving talent has been refined this season, averaging 4.1 adjusted receptions compared to just 2.4 last season. Khalil Shakir's 96.6% Adjusted Completion Rate this year indicates a material gain in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 86.7% figure. When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Tennessee's CB corps has been lousy this year, profiling as the 7th-worst in the league.

The Bills are a heavy 9.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script. The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to be the least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 50.7% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 121.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The fewest plays in football have been run by the Bills this year (a measly 51.7 per game on average). Opposing teams have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game against the Titans defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football.

The Titans have been the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 56.6% pass rate. Our trusted projections expect the Titans to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. The 6th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Titans this year (a mere 54.0 per game on average). Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being forecasted in this game) generally prompt decreased passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and increased run volume. Chigoziem Okonkwo has been much less involved in his team's passing game this season (10.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (16.4%).

This week's line indicates an extreme passing game script for the Titans, who are enormous -7-point underdogs. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 10th-fewest in football. Our trusted projections expect DeAndre Hopkins to garner 6.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile when it comes to wide receivers. Our trusted projections expect DeAndre Hopkins to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing attack in this game (22.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (15.4% in games he has played). DeAndre Hopkins's 67.6% Adjusted Completion Rate this season conveys an impressive growth in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 56.6% mark.

Our trusted projections expect Dalton Kincaid to accrue 5.4 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile when it comes to tight ends. Dalton Kincaid's 43.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 35.1. Since the start of last season, the feeble Titans pass defense has given up a colossal 78.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 5th-worst rate in the NFL.

The Titans will be starting backup quarterback Mason Rudolph this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. This week's line indicates an extreme passing game script for the Titans, who are enormous -9.5-point underdogs. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 10th-fewest in football. In this week's game, Calvin Ridley is projected by the projection model to secure a spot in the 75th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 6.9 targets. This year, the anemic Buffalo Bills pass defense has been torched for a staggering 67.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 10th-worst rate in football.