New York @ Minnesota props

Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the New York Jets, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 28.8 per game) this year. Justin Jefferson's 4.9 adjusted receptions per game this year signifies a remarkable drop-off in his receiving skills over last year's 6.6 figure. The Jets pass defense has yielded the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (63.1%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (63.1%). The Jets linebackers grade out as the best unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jets to pass on 61.1% of their downs: the 4th-highest clip on the slate this week. The predictive model expects the Jets to call the 5th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.3 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop. Opposing teams have averaged 45.0 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: most in the NFL. In this contest, Breece Hall is projected by the projection model to find himself in the 99th percentile when it comes to running backs with 5.9 targets.

The Vikings are a 4-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script. The leading projections forecast the Vikings as the 8th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 59.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. As far as a defense's effect on pace, at 28.14 seconds per play, the leading projections forecast the Vikings as the 8th-quickest in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment. In this week's contest, Aaron Jones is anticipated by our trusted projection set to land in the 99th percentile among running backs with 5.9 targets. Aaron Jones's receiving talent has gotten a boost this season, compiling 4.0 adjusted catches compared to just 2.7 last season.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jets to pass on 61.1% of their downs: the 4th-highest clip on the slate this week. The predictive model expects the Jets to call the 5th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.3 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop. Opposing teams have averaged 45.0 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: most in the NFL. Tyler Conklin has gone out for fewer passes this year (90.2% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (67.7%).

The Vikings are a 4-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script. The leading projections forecast the Vikings as the 8th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 59.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. As far as a defense's effect on pace, at 28.14 seconds per play, the leading projections forecast the Vikings as the 8th-quickest in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment. Johnny Mundt has gone out for fewer passes this season (69.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (12.2%).

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jets to pass on 61.1% of their downs: the 4th-highest clip on the slate this week. The predictive model expects the Jets to call the 5th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.3 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop. Opposing teams have averaged 45.0 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: most in the NFL. With an excellent 5.0 adjusted catches per game (85th percentile) this year, Garrett Wilson ranks as one of the leading pass-catching WRs in the NFL.