Approach this game like both rosters will be intact; Georgia Southern should be favored by more than -4.5. The biggest reason this spread is so close is because of intangible Sam Houston State motivation. Can it be countered by the effect of losing your head coach? If so, then we are back to the original thought. SHSU’s offense is simply too miserable to be trusted to keep up with Clay Helton’s passing designs. The nicest thing that can be said about SHSU’s offense is that it ranks No. 50 in the country in late-down success rate at 43.1%. The problem there is, the Bearkats face late downs far too often, and when failing on more than half of them, repeated third downs become repeated punts.