LIVE End Dec 25
SA 114 8.5 o223.0
NY 117 -8.5 u223.0
MIN 5.0 o222.0
DAL -5.0 u222.0
PHI 8.5 o221.0
BOS -8.5 u221.0
LAL 4.0 o220.5
GS -4.0 u220.5
DEN -2.5 o231.5
PHO 2.5 u231.5
Minnesota 9th WESTERN CONFERENCE14-14
Dallas 4th WESTERN CONFERENCE19-10

Minnesota @ Dallas props

American Airlines Center

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Dereck Lively II Points Scored Props ? Dallas

D. Lively II
center C ? Dallas
Prop
6.5
Points Scored
Projection
8.7
Best Odds
Over
-150
Prop
6.5 Points Scored
Projection
8.7
Best Odds
Over
-150
Projection Rating

Dereck Lively II has successfully made 86.7% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 5 games, 15.5% more than he's sunk in all games this year. The 6th-most up-tempo tempo offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Dallas Mavericks. The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games when playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce new opportunities for scoring and assists). Dereck Lively II will have the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing with the home court advantage generally raises player production for all stats.

Dereck Lively II

Prop: 6.5 Points Scored
Projection: 8.7
Prop:
6.5 Points Scored
Projection:
8.7

Dereck Lively II has successfully made 86.7% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 5 games, 15.5% more than he's sunk in all games this year. The 6th-most up-tempo tempo offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Dallas Mavericks. The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games when playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce new opportunities for scoring and assists). Dereck Lively II will have the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing with the home court advantage generally raises player production for all stats.

Mike Conley Points Scored Props ? Minnesota

M. Conley
point guard PG ? Minnesota
Prop
8.5
Points Scored
Projection
10
Best Odds
Over
-110
Prop
8.5 Points Scored
Projection
10
Best Odds
Over
-110
Projection Rating

When it comes to shots from behind the three-point arc, the 5th-most aggressive team in the NBA this year has been the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Mavericks have played at the 6th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games, which should boost possessions for the Minnesota Timberwolves. Mike Conley has successfully made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 14.4% more than he's put through the hoop over the course of the season.

Mike Conley

Prop: 8.5 Points Scored
Projection: 10
Prop:
8.5 Points Scored
Projection:
10

When it comes to shots from behind the three-point arc, the 5th-most aggressive team in the NBA this year has been the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Mavericks have played at the 6th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games, which should boost possessions for the Minnesota Timberwolves. Mike Conley has successfully made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 14.4% more than he's put through the hoop over the course of the season.

Luka Dončić Points Scored Props ? Dallas

L. Dončić
point guard PG ? Dallas
Prop
29.5
Points Scored
Projection
27.8
Best Odds
Under
-105
Prop
29.5 Points Scored
Projection
27.8
Best Odds
Under
-105
Projection Rating

Relative to last year's 32.7 mark, Luka Doncic's points per game have tailed off this year to 28.8. The Mavericks have been the 2nd-least aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games at home in terms of shot attempts from beyond the arc. The matchup vs. the Timberwolves is a hard one for field goals; the other team's starting PGs have posted the lowest field goal percentage in the NBA this year (39.8%). The Timberwolves have played at the 4th-most lethargic pace in the league over the last 15 games, which should reduce possessions for the Dallas Mavericks. Over the last 15 games, the other team's starting PGs have attempted 3.3 foul shots per game (5th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves, making it tough to get to the foul line.

Luka Dončić

Prop: 29.5 Points Scored
Projection: 27.8
Prop:
29.5 Points Scored
Projection:
27.8

Relative to last year's 32.7 mark, Luka Doncic's points per game have tailed off this year to 28.8. The Mavericks have been the 2nd-least aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games at home in terms of shot attempts from beyond the arc. The matchup vs. the Timberwolves is a hard one for field goals; the other team's starting PGs have posted the lowest field goal percentage in the NBA this year (39.8%). The Timberwolves have played at the 4th-most lethargic pace in the league over the last 15 games, which should reduce possessions for the Dallas Mavericks. Over the last 15 games, the other team's starting PGs have attempted 3.3 foul shots per game (5th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves, making it tough to get to the foul line.

Anthony Edwards Points Scored Props ? Minnesota

A. Edwards
shooting guard SG ? Minnesota
Prop
25.5
Points Scored
Projection
23.8
Best Odds
Under
-110
Prop
25.5 Points Scored
Projection
23.8
Best Odds
Under
-110
Projection Rating

The Minnesota Timberwolves have played at the 4th-most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games. The Minnesota Timberwolves check in as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists). Compared to last year's 6.4 rate, Anthony Edwards's number of free throws has fallen this year to 4.1 free throws per game. Over the last 10 games, the opposition's starting SGs have attempted 1.8 free throws per game (6th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Dallas Mavericks, making it tough to get to the foul line. Anthony Edwards will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home court generally lowers player performance across the board.

Anthony Edwards

Prop: 25.5 Points Scored
Projection: 23.8
Prop:
25.5 Points Scored
Projection:
23.8

The Minnesota Timberwolves have played at the 4th-most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games. The Minnesota Timberwolves check in as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists). Compared to last year's 6.4 rate, Anthony Edwards's number of free throws has fallen this year to 4.1 free throws per game. Over the last 10 games, the opposition's starting SGs have attempted 1.8 free throws per game (6th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Dallas Mavericks, making it tough to get to the foul line. Anthony Edwards will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home court generally lowers player performance across the board.

Rudy Gobert Points Scored Props ? Minnesota

R. Gobert
center C ? Minnesota
Prop
10.5
Points Scored
Projection
11.5
Best Odds
Over
+100
Prop
10.5 Points Scored
Projection
11.5
Best Odds
Over
+100
Projection Rating

Among all players in the league, Rudy Gobert comes in at the 87th percentile for playing time, posting a colossal 33.4 minutes per game without the home court advantage this year. When it comes to shots from behind the three-point arc, the 5th-most aggressive team in the NBA this year has been the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Mavericks have played at the 6th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games, which should boost possessions for the Minnesota Timberwolves. The matchup vs. Dereck Lively II is a favorable one for drawing fouls; when defending fellow starting Cs this year, they have attempted a monstrous 3.9 free throws per game (89th percentile).

Rudy Gobert

Prop: 10.5 Points Scored
Projection: 11.5
Prop:
10.5 Points Scored
Projection:
11.5

Among all players in the league, Rudy Gobert comes in at the 87th percentile for playing time, posting a colossal 33.4 minutes per game without the home court advantage this year. When it comes to shots from behind the three-point arc, the 5th-most aggressive team in the NBA this year has been the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Mavericks have played at the 6th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games, which should boost possessions for the Minnesota Timberwolves. The matchup vs. Dereck Lively II is a favorable one for drawing fouls; when defending fellow starting Cs this year, they have attempted a monstrous 3.9 free throws per game (89th percentile).

Julius Randle Points Scored Props ? Minnesota

J. Randle
power forward PF ? Minnesota
Prop
20.5
Points Scored
Projection
19.3
Best Odds
Under
-125
Prop
20.5 Points Scored
Projection
19.3
Best Odds
Under
-125
Projection Rating

Julius Randle has tallied a mere 20.0 points per game this season, significantly lower than his 24.0 points per game last season. The Minnesota Timberwolves have played at the 4th-most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games. The Minnesota Timberwolves check in as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists). This year when they are on the road, opposing starting PFs have attempted 2.5 free throws per game (3rd-fewest in the league) vs. the Mavericks, struggling to get to the free-throw line. Julius Randle stands to suffer a reduction in output in all stat categories on account of playing away from home in this matchup.

Julius Randle

Prop: 20.5 Points Scored
Projection: 19.3
Prop:
20.5 Points Scored
Projection:
19.3

Julius Randle has tallied a mere 20.0 points per game this season, significantly lower than his 24.0 points per game last season. The Minnesota Timberwolves have played at the 4th-most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games. The Minnesota Timberwolves check in as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists). This year when they are on the road, opposing starting PFs have attempted 2.5 free throws per game (3rd-fewest in the league) vs. the Mavericks, struggling to get to the free-throw line. Julius Randle stands to suffer a reduction in output in all stat categories on account of playing away from home in this matchup.

Naz Reid Points Scored Props ? Minnesota

N. Reid
center C ? Minnesota
Prop
11.5
Points Scored
Projection
12.5
Best Odds
Over
-120
Prop
11.5 Points Scored
Projection
12.5
Best Odds
Over
-120
Projection Rating

Naz Reid has successfully made 42.4% of his attempts from beyond the arc over the last 5 games, 9.7% higher than he's made from beyond the arc in all games this year. When it comes to shots from behind the three-point arc, the 5th-most aggressive team in the NBA this year has been the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Mavericks have played at the 6th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games, which should boost possessions for the Minnesota Timberwolves. Naz Reid has converted 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 9.7% more than he's made in all games this year.

Naz Reid

Prop: 11.5 Points Scored
Projection: 12.5
Prop:
11.5 Points Scored
Projection:
12.5

Naz Reid has successfully made 42.4% of his attempts from beyond the arc over the last 5 games, 9.7% higher than he's made from beyond the arc in all games this year. When it comes to shots from behind the three-point arc, the 5th-most aggressive team in the NBA this year has been the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Mavericks have played at the 6th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games, which should boost possessions for the Minnesota Timberwolves. Naz Reid has converted 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 9.7% more than he's made in all games this year.

P.J. Washington Points Scored Props ? Dallas

P. Washington
power forward PF ? Dallas
Prop
11.5
Points Scored
Projection
12.2
Best Odds
Over
-118
Prop
11.5 Points Scored
Projection
12.2
Best Odds
Over
-118
Projection Rating

P.J. Washington has converted 51.1% of his field goal attempts over the last 5 games at home, 7.7% more than he's put through the net overall this year with the home court advantage. P.J. Washington has sunk 55.5% of his 3-point attempts over the last 10 games, 18.0% higher than he's sunk overall this year. P.J. Washington has averaged 31.1 minutes per game while on his home court this year, ranking in the 79th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the NBA. The 6th-most up-tempo tempo offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Dallas Mavericks. The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games when playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce new opportunities for scoring and assists).

P.J. Washington

Prop: 11.5 Points Scored
Projection: 12.2
Prop:
11.5 Points Scored
Projection:
12.2

P.J. Washington has converted 51.1% of his field goal attempts over the last 5 games at home, 7.7% more than he's put through the net overall this year with the home court advantage. P.J. Washington has sunk 55.5% of his 3-point attempts over the last 10 games, 18.0% higher than he's sunk overall this year. P.J. Washington has averaged 31.1 minutes per game while on his home court this year, ranking in the 79th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the NBA. The 6th-most up-tempo tempo offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Dallas Mavericks. The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games when playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce new opportunities for scoring and assists).

Klay Thompson Points Scored Props ? Dallas

K. Thompson
shooting guard SG ? Dallas
Prop
12.5
Points Scored
Projection
13.4
Best Odds
Over
-130
Prop
12.5 Points Scored
Projection
13.4
Best Odds
Over
-130
Projection Rating

Klay Thompson has made 7.2 field goals per game over the last 5 games, 2.0 more than he's put through the hoop in all games this season. Klay Thompson has successfully made 4.2 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games, 1.1 more than he's made overall this season. The 6th-most up-tempo tempo offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Dallas Mavericks. The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games when playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce new opportunities for scoring and assists). Klay Thompson will have the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on your home court generally improves stat production for all stats.

Klay Thompson

Prop: 12.5 Points Scored
Projection: 13.4
Prop:
12.5 Points Scored
Projection:
13.4

Klay Thompson has made 7.2 field goals per game over the last 5 games, 2.0 more than he's put through the hoop in all games this season. Klay Thompson has successfully made 4.2 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games, 1.1 more than he's made overall this season. The 6th-most up-tempo tempo offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Dallas Mavericks. The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games when playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce new opportunities for scoring and assists). Klay Thompson will have the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on your home court generally improves stat production for all stats.

Jaden McDaniels Points Scored Props ? Minnesota

J. McDaniels
power forward PF ? Minnesota
Prop
10.5
Points Scored
Projection
10.2
Best Odds
Under
-120
Prop
10.5 Points Scored
Projection
10.2
Best Odds
Under
-120
Projection Rating

Jaden McDaniels has been called for 3.0 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the highest-fouling players in the NBA (95th percentile). The matchup vs. Dallas is a tough one for 3-pointers; when the Dallas Mavericks are at home, the opposition's starting SFs have totaled the least shots from downtown per game in the NBA this year (0.8). The Minnesota Timberwolves have played at the 4th-most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games. The Minnesota Timberwolves check in as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists). Jaden McDaniels will not hold the home court advantage in this game. Playing without the home court advantage generally worsens player performance across the board.

Jaden McDaniels

Prop: 10.5 Points Scored
Projection: 10.2
Prop:
10.5 Points Scored
Projection:
10.2

Jaden McDaniels has been called for 3.0 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the highest-fouling players in the NBA (95th percentile). The matchup vs. Dallas is a tough one for 3-pointers; when the Dallas Mavericks are at home, the opposition's starting SFs have totaled the least shots from downtown per game in the NBA this year (0.8). The Minnesota Timberwolves have played at the 4th-most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games. The Minnesota Timberwolves check in as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists). Jaden McDaniels will not hold the home court advantage in this game. Playing without the home court advantage generally worsens player performance across the board.

Daniel Gafford Points Scored Props ? Dallas

D. Gafford
power forward PF ? Dallas
Prop
9.5
Points Scored
Projection
9.8
Best Odds
Over
-105
Prop
9.5 Points Scored
Projection
9.8
Best Odds
Over
-105
Projection Rating

Out of all players in the league, Daniel Gafford registers in the 97th percentile for field goal effectiveness at home with an outstanding 73.0% rate this year. The 6th-most up-tempo tempo offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Dallas Mavericks. The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games when playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce new opportunities for scoring and assists). Daniel Gafford has attempted 5.8 free throws per game over the last 5 games at home, 2.1 higher than he's attempted over the course of the season at home. Daniel Gafford is expected to get a boost in effectiveness in all stat categories considering controlling the home court advantage in this matchup.

Daniel Gafford

Prop: 9.5 Points Scored
Projection: 9.8
Prop:
9.5 Points Scored
Projection:
9.8

Out of all players in the league, Daniel Gafford registers in the 97th percentile for field goal effectiveness at home with an outstanding 73.0% rate this year. The 6th-most up-tempo tempo offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Dallas Mavericks. The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games when playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce new opportunities for scoring and assists). Daniel Gafford has attempted 5.8 free throws per game over the last 5 games at home, 2.1 higher than he's attempted over the course of the season at home. Daniel Gafford is expected to get a boost in effectiveness in all stat categories considering controlling the home court advantage in this matchup.

Kyrie Irving Points Scored Props ? Dallas

K. Irving
point guard PG ? Dallas
Prop
20.5
Points Scored
Projection
21.3
Best Odds
Over
-150
Prop
20.5 Points Scored
Projection
21.3
Best Odds
Over
-150
Projection Rating

Kyrie Irving has attempted 16.2 field goals per game when playing at home this year, placing him in the 93rd percentile out of all players in the league. Kyrie Irving has sunk 2.4 3-point shots per game playing at home this year, putting him in the 86th percentile among all players in the NBA. Among all players in the league, Kyrie Irving places in the 89th percentile for playing time, averaging a massive 33.5 minutes per game playing at home this year. This year when they are playing at home, the opposition's starting SGs have averaged 2.6 3-pointers per game (4th-most in the league) against the Timberwolves, identifying this as a positive matchup. The 6th-most up-tempo tempo offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Dallas Mavericks.

Kyrie Irving

Prop: 20.5 Points Scored
Projection: 21.3
Prop:
20.5 Points Scored
Projection:
21.3

Kyrie Irving has attempted 16.2 field goals per game when playing at home this year, placing him in the 93rd percentile out of all players in the league. Kyrie Irving has sunk 2.4 3-point shots per game playing at home this year, putting him in the 86th percentile among all players in the NBA. Among all players in the league, Kyrie Irving places in the 89th percentile for playing time, averaging a massive 33.5 minutes per game playing at home this year. This year when they are playing at home, the opposition's starting SGs have averaged 2.6 3-pointers per game (4th-most in the league) against the Timberwolves, identifying this as a positive matchup. The 6th-most up-tempo tempo offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Dallas Mavericks.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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