NFL Week 10 Total Bets: Jousting in Jacksonville

Over/Under bet #1: Giants vs Panthers Under 40.5

Among 35 quarterbacks with at least 150 snaps, Carolina Panthers pivot Bryce Young ranks 35th in EPA/play and has averaged just 5.4 yards per pass attempt. It doesn't help that the Panthers traded away leading receiver Diontae Johnson while Adam Thielen and left tackle Ikem Ekwonu are sidelined by injuries. 

The New York Giants are also missing their left tackle and a key receiver with Andrew Thomas and Darius Slayton injured. Meanwhile, Daniel Jones is 25th among QBs in EPA/play, and the Giants leaned heavily on their ground game last week despite facing a weak Commanders secondary.  

Expect a heavy dose of running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. against a Panthers defense that ranks 31st in defensive rush EPA. Likewise, Carolina's best player has been running back Chuba Hubbard (665 rushing yards, 5.0 yards per carry), and the Giants allow a league-worst 5.2 yards per rush.

With both teams unable to attack the ball downfield, expect plenty of running and ball control in Germany.

Over/Under bet #2: Bills vs Colts Under 46.5

The Buffalo Bills have a highly efficient offense, but they play at a slow tempo and love to run the ball. Even last week against Miami's mediocre secondary, they rarely attacked downfield, with most of their passes coming underneath coverage. They are also depleted at wide receiver, with Keon Coleman ruled out and Amari Cooper listed as questionable due to a wrist injury that kept him out last week.

The Indianapolis Colts had one of the worst defenses in the league at the start of the year, but they've looked better in recent weeks with Pro Bowl defensive tackle Deforest Buckner returning to the lineup. They are now a respectable 13th in the league in defensive EPA and rank seventh in that metric since Week 6.

That said, their offense has struggled, and it became evident last week that Joe Flacco isn't going to be their savior. The Colts will also be without top receiver Michael Pittman Jr., while Pro Bowl center Ryan Kelly and right guard Will Fries are on the IR.

Over/Under bet #3: Vikings vs Jaguars Over 43

The total for this game plummeted from 46.5 to 43.5 after the news came out that Mac Jones would replace an injured Trevor Lawrence. That might be a bit of an overreaction when you consider how erratic Lawrence has been this season.

Jones struggled last year, but that was surrounded by a brutal WR corps and offensive line in New England, and he's in a better spot to succeed here. Especially with the Minnesota Vikings defense regressing by allowing 5.9 yards per play over the last three weeks.

But the primary reason why I love the Over in this matchup is because I expect Minnesota's offense to do the heavy lifting on the scoreboard. The Jacksonville Jaguars are 32nd in the league in defensive EPA and 30th in points allowed per game (28.0).

They've been especially bad through the air, surrendering the second-most passing yards per game (264.3) and the worst opponent pass efficiency (113.4). They'll get lit up by Sam Darnold and a Vikes aerial attack that features Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson.