The Kansas City Chiefs host the Houston Texans at Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday, December 21, and our top NFL player props are the perfect complement to the action.
While Houston has already clinched a postseason berth, the Texans will still be plenty motivated to prove they’re legitimate contenders against the first-place Chiefs in Week 16.
Here’s a look at our top NFL picks for the Texans-Chiefs showdown.
Texans vs Chiefs props
- Joe Mixon Over 59.5 rushing yards (-110 at BetMGM)
- DeAndre Hopkins Over 3.5 receptions (-120 at BetMGM)
- Xavier Worthy Over 1.5 rushing yards (-120 at BetMGM)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Texans vs Chiefs props
Prop bet #1: Joe Mixon Over 59.5 rushing yards
Joe Mixon has topped 100 rushing yards in seven of 11 games this season, and one of the outliers was when he sustained an ankle injury in Week 2 that ultimately sidelined him for three weeks. This is also his lowest total in this market since closing at 50.5 in Week 6 against the New England Patriots.
Of course, the reason we’ve landed this low total is because Kansas City has allowed the fewest rushing yards and second-lowest yards per carry (3.66) to opposing running backs this season. Still, the Chiefs have allowed the third-highest yards per carry (5.32) the past three weeks, and Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud and the passing attack will keep the KC defense honest and unable to focus solely on slowing down Mixon.
Prop bet #2: DeAndre Hopkins Over 3.5 receptions
Houston has played zone coverage at the eighth-highest rate (72.6%) in the NFL, and Kansas City wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has garnered a team-high 21.6% target rate against zone looks with 34 receptions for 390 yards.
Hopkins has caught four or more passes in six of the past seven games while piling up 33 receptions on 48 targets for an average of 4.7 receptions and 6.9 targets per game.
Additionally, as noted, I’m expecting the Chiefs to have to stay active in the passing game because I’m anticipating the Texans having success on offense and keeping this game competitive.
Prop bet #3: Xavier Worthy Over 1.5 rushing yards
Kansas City has looked for ways to involve rookie receiver Xavier Worthy more of late, and he’s led all Chiefs receivers in offensive snaps in each of the past two games. Worthy has also rushed 15 times for 84 yards (5.6 per tote) and three scores this season.
So, the real risk is just whether or not he’s going to have a rushing opportunity or not. I’m expecting he will because it’s been working for the Chiefs.
Plus, Worthy has received a handoff in 10 of 14 games, including four of the past five, and he had three carries for 30 yards and a score last week against the Cleveland Browns.
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