This year's rendition of the Super Bowl features a litany of offensive playmakers on both sides, including San Francisco 49ers star wide-out Deebo Samuel. Samuel was the Niners' undisputed top weapon two years ago, but with the addition of Christian McCaffrey and the ascent of Brandon Aiyuk, touches are harder to come by these days.
Still, with more competition for targets and a strong Chiefs pass defense in front of him, Samuel's Super Bowl odds are a even a bit lower than usual. Does that make for betting value on taking the Over on his NFL odds? I let you know as I assess the Deebo Samuel odds and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Super Bowl LVIII on Sunday, February 11.
For more Super Bowl predictions, be sure to check out Jason Logan's 49ers vs. Chiefs picks.
Deebo Samuel Super Bowl prop picks
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Deebo Samuel Super Bowl prop pick
Over 15.5 rushing yards (-110)
Deebo Samuel's receiving yards total for the Super Bowl is sitting at 56.5 but even at that modest number, it's tough to justify betting the Over with how volatile his production has been this year.
Samuel is currently battling an injury to the same shoulder that cost him three games earlier in the season. He played through that injury last week and reeled in eight catches for 89 yards. However, he had been held below 50 yards in his previous five games — albeit largely sitting on the sidelines in two of those contests.
The Kansas City Chiefs also have a terrific pass defense and held opposing WRs to just 124.6 receiving yards per game during the regular season. That said, while I'm steering clear of Samuel's receiving yards total in this matchup I do like the Over on his rushing yards total.
Even if quarterback Brock Purdy spreads out his targets between Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle, I still expect head coach Kyle Shanahan to try and get the ball in Samuel's hands and that should mean rush attempts.
In Samuel's All-Pro season in 2021, he also took snaps at running back and ended up having 502 rushing yards in both the regular season and playoffs. While he hasn't seen nearly as many carries since, I expect Shanahan to empty the playbook on Super Bowl Sunday and that should mean getting Samuel the ball in space. Samuel has rushed for more than 20 yards in five games this season.
Although Samuel had a modest seven rushing yards last week, he logged three carries in that game and should have more success on the ground against the Chiefs. While the Chiefs have one of the top pass defenses in the league they've struggled against the run ranking 28th in defensive rush EPA. They've been especially vulnerable on outside runs and Samuel might only need to hit the edge once to eclipse his rushing yards total.
Prop: Over 15.5 rushing yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Deebo Samuel Super Bowl same-game parlay
Deebo Samuel Over 15.5 rushing yards
Deebo Samuel anytime TD
49ers first-half team total Over 12.5
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Even if Samuel doesn't see a ton of overall targets in the passing game, expect him to be a big part of the 49ers offensive scheme in the red zone. Keep in mind that in one fewer game than Aiyuk this season, Samuel had twice as many targets in the red zone (18 to 9) and also logged nine carries for 53 yards and four scores.
If you ignore San Francisco's meaningless Week 19 game where he barely played, Samuel found the end zone in six of his final eight regular season contests scoring 10 total touchdowns during that span.
With creative play-calling from Shanahan and Samuel punching it into the end zone it also makes sense to back the 49ers offense in this SGP. While the Chiefs have locked down defensively during the second half of games (6.8 ppg allowed), they've been more vulnerable in the first frame, and the Niners average 14.8 ppg before halftime.
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