The Seattle Seahawks are looking to gain ground in a wide-open NFC West, bringing a two-game winning streak all the way across the country to play the New York Jets on Sunday.
In order to maintain those winning ways, Seattle may have to overcome some key offensive injuries. As a result, my Seahawks vs. Jets predictions anticipate a long afternoon ahead for quarterback Geno Smith.
I break down the spread, total, and props for this non-conference Week 13 contest and give my best NFL picks for December 1.
Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. EST from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, with the game airing on FOX.
Seahawks vs Jets prediction
Who will win Seahawks vs Jets?
The NFL odds have this painted as a close one, with the Seahawks ranging from -1 to -2 and the moneyline odds giving Seattle an implied win probability of almost 56%.
The Jets hold a few advantages, however. New York isn’t just playing at home but hosting this West Coast foe for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff (10 a.m. PT).
Gang Green is also fresh off a much-needed bye week, allowing this revamped coaching staff time to plan and coordinate for the home stretch of the schedule.
Seattle’s two-game winning run isn’t all that impressive, considering it took advantage of an injury-plagued 49ers team in Week 11 and needed a 69-yard INT return touchdown to put away Arizona in Week 12.
The Jets have been competitive at home, despite a 2-5 SU record at MetLife Stadium. Those three losses have been by a combined five points. I like New York to win as a short home pup.
Prediction: Jets win, 17-14.
My best bet
Geno Smith Under 239.5 Passing Yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Geno Smith returns to East Rutherford to face the team that drafted him way back in 2013, but don’t expect a warm welcome in the Meadowlands (especially with game-time temperatures forecasted to “feel like” sub-freezing).
Smith’s passing production has been up and down in the second half of the season, averaging just over 251 yards through the air over his last five contests, compared to 296 passing yards an outing in the opening six games.
Those numbers will be tough to match if Smith is without his two top receivers on Sunday. As of this writing, Seattle Seahawks star wideouts D.K. Metcalf (shoulder) and Tyler Lockett (knee) missed mid-week practice and are listed as questionable for Week 13.
On top of that, Smith faces a New York Jets defense that primarily runs man-to-man coverage (seventh highest rate of man), which is a scheme that Smith has struggled against throughout his career.
On the season, the Seattle QB sees a significant downtick in production between man and zone coverage. His throw rate drops to 35% against man (compared to 65% vs. zone) while his completion percentage sinks to 58% (vs. 70% against zone) and his passer rating plummets to 74.1 (28th among QBs) from 94.4 versus zone schemes.
New York’s stop unit has been very inconsistent in 2024, but it does a good job defending the pass most weeks, ranked sixth in opponent success rate per dropback, 15th in EPA allowed per pass, and giving up the second-lowest completion percentage in the NFL.
The Jets also have an aggressive pass rush that has 34 sacks (seventh) behind a pressure rate of 26.2% per dropback (eighth). They’ll test Seattle’s protection, which continues to be hampered by injuries. The Seahawks are 24th in pass block win rate at ESPN, allowing 37 sacks on Smith — third most in the land.
Player projections for Smith differ and not all reflect the health of the Seattle receiving corps. Some models call for a high of 256 yards while others forecast a low of 219 passing yards.
The prop market is drawing early Under play, which has knocked this prop total from 241.5 to 239.5 across the industry.
Seahawks vs Jets same-game parlay
Geno Smith Under 233.5 passing yards
Jets -1
Breece Hall anytime TD
Smith could be playing without his top targets versus his kryptonite of man coverage on the road.
Breece Hall was back at practice and is recharged off the bye, coming off two touchdowns in Week 11.
New York has the home, time, and rest advantage against a Seattle team on a shaky two-game run.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Seahawks vs Jets odds
Seahawks vs Jets live odds
Seahawks vs Jets opening odds
- Spread: Seattle -1.5 | New York +1.5
- Moneyline: Seattle -130 | New York +110
- Over/Under: Over 42 | Under 42
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Seahawks vs Jets spread and Over/Under analysis
• New York opened as a 1.5-point home underdog and that spread has climbed as high as +2.5 at some books. According to Covers Consensus, 74% of picks are laying the points with the road favorites.
• The total opened at 42 points and bounced between 41.5 and 42.5 O/U. 51% of Covers Consensus users are taking the Under.
Seahawks vs Jets betting trend to know
Seattle is 16-5 SU but just 6-12-3 ATS as a road favorite since 2018. Find more NFL betting trends for Seahawks vs. Jets.
Seahawks vs Jets game info
| Location: | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-1, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Seahawks vs Jets latest injuries
Seahawks vs Jets weather
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