Dolphins vs Patriots Week 1 Picks and Predictions: Pats D Will Shine In Season Opener

The Patriots defense was decimated last year due to COVID, opt-outs, and injuries. With many key players back and reinforcements added, New England's D should again be elite — and we like that stop unit to be on full display in Week 1 against Miami.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan ? Senior Betting Analyst
Sep 7, 2021 ? 11:51 ET ? 5 min read
Matt Judon New England Patriots NFL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

A vital game in the AFC East opens the 2021 NFL betting schedule when the Miami Dolphins come to Foxborough to face the New England Patriots in Week 1.

These divisional rivals are likely chasing Buffalo in the standings and find themselves in a race for second place right out of the gate, with bookies setting the Patriots as 2.5-point favorites for this season opener.

Two young former Alabama quarterbacks share the spotlight, with Miami leaning on Tua Tagovailoa and New England opting to start rookie Mac Jones. These are our free NFL picks and predictions for Dolphins at Patriots on Sunday, September 12 with kickoff at 4:25 p.m. ET.

Dolphins vs Patriots odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

This spread opened Patriots -2 back in May and jumped as high as -3 in late August before buyback on the Dolphins pushed it back beneath the field goal at some books. There are still some Miami +3 spreads available at select markets. The Over/Under total hit the board at 45.5 points and was bet down to as low as 43 heading into Week 1. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movement and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.

Dolphins vs Patriots picks

Picks made on 9/7/2021 at 11:25 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Best sign-up bonuses

If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for NFL Week 1, here are two of the best welcome bonuses available:

USA: Risk-free bet up to $5,000 plus get a free NFL jersey at Caesars. Claim Now

Canada: 100% matched free bet up to $400 at BetVictor. Claim Now

Dolphins vs Patriots game info

Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
Date: Sunday, September 12, 2021
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: CBS

Dolphins at Patriots betting preview

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.

Key injuries

Dolphins: Will Fuller WR (Suspended), Adam Shaheen TE (Out), Preston Williams WR (Out), Elijah Campbell CB (Out), Noah Igbinoghene CB (Out), Greg Little OT (Out), Trill Williams S (Out).
Patriots: N'Keal Harry WR (Out), Stephon Gilmore CB (Out), Ronnie Perkins DE (Out), Devin Asiasi TE (Out), Yodny Cajuste OT (Out), Quinn Nordin K (Out), J.J. Taylor RB (Out), Shaun Wade CB (Out), Malcolm Perry WR (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The home team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings between the Patriots and Dolphins. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Patriots.

Dolphins vs Patriots predictions

With this spread teetering on the key number of a field goal, you’ll want to shop around for the best number for your opinion. In our case, that’s New England -2.5.

Plenty are passing on the Patriots due to a rookie QB under center, but Jones received a lot of preseason reps (threw 52 passes, completed 36, and posted a QBR of 97.3), showed good judgement and patience, and was graded as the highest rookie QB in the exhibition slate according to ProFootballFocus.

New England doesn’t need Jones to be Tom Brady and they know he’s not Cam Newton, who lost the starting job and his roster spot to the Alabama product. Jones is surrounded by an offense that fits a first-year passer, with active pass-catching running backs and a strong tight end corps, especially if Hunter Henry is active (sounds like he will be).

Last year’s offense struggled to move the chains, lacked talent at the skill positions, and was very limited by Newton’s noodle arm, posting an average time of possession of just 28:57 (23rd in the NFL). The 2021 playbook under veteran coordinator Josh McDaniels has much more to work with and will look to complement a restocked stop unit by controlling the football and the clock.

And speaking of the Patriots defense, this unit suffered in 2020 due to COVID-19 limitations and opt-outs, as well as some key departures in free agency. The season prior, New England’s defense was the belle of the advanced analytics ball, sitting tops in Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders.

I expect Bill Belichick’s group to rank among the defensive elite once again in 2021, getting Dont’a Hightower back and adding guys like Davon Godchaux, Kyle Van Noy, and Matt Judon to the front seven. The Hoodie has also had a regular camp and preseason to prep and scheme, which meant many long nights watching film on Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa.

The Fins’ second-year QB got a little taste of the Patriots’ makeshift stop unit in 2020, completing 20 of 26 passes for 145 yards and an interception (along with 250 yards on the ground and two rushing TDs) during a 22-12 Week 15 victory in Miami. This is not the same defensive opponent in 2021.

Tagovailoa, who is learning a new playbook under co-coordinators Eric Studesville and George Godsey, could be without multiple cogs of this offense in Week 1. Left tackle Austin Jackson and TE Adam Shaheen are in limbo due to COVID-19. As well, new receiver Will Fuller V is also out for the opener, finishing out his suspension from 2020.

This game will be a defensive battle, with Miami coach Brian Flores boasting a stop unit that finished 11th in DVOA in 2020 and was extremely disruptive. The Dolphins had 41 sacks and an NFL-best 29 takeaways (18 INTs) last year — a chaotic stat that is hard to replicate year over year. That said, this will still be a stout passing defense taking on a careful New England offensive attack.

This total made one of the bigger adjustments over the summer, dropping from 45.5 to as low as 43.5. Some books are dealing a number of 44, so if you like the Under shop for the highest total.

As mentioned above, Tagovailoa ran in two scores in his first meeting with New England in Week 15 last year. And while the Pats will push back a lot more on defense in Week 1, his ability to break off big runs could lead to another touchdown carry.

The Patriots’ secondary is extremely sharp and stacked with tight coverage, giving a retooled defensive line time to collapse the pocket around the Year 2 passer. That will have Tua on the run on plenty of plays, compounded by Austin Jackson’s possible absence on the left side of the line.

Red-zone offense is one of the toughest nuts to crack for coordinators and with a brand new system in place for the Fins, Tagovailoa could default to scrambling for pay dirt when inside the 20-yard line.

Where can I bet on the NFL?

You can bet on NFL odds at every online and casino sportsbook, including NFL moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals, and a ton of NFL prop odds. Head over to our best football betting sites for the top spots to bet on NFL odds in your area.

Pages related to this topic

Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”

Popular Content

Legal Canadian sports betting

Best Canadian betting sites Ontario sports betting
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
seductrice.net
universo-virtual.com
buytrendz.net
thisforall.net
benchpressgains.com
qthzb.com
mindhunter9.com
dwjqp1.com
secure-signup.net
ahaayy.com
tressesindia.com
puresybian.com
krpano-chs.com
cre8workshop.com
hdkino.org
peixun021.com
qz786.com
utahperformingartscenter.org
worldqrmconference.com
shangyuwh.com
eejssdfsdfdfjsd.com
playminecraftfreeonline.com
trekvietnamtour.com
your-business-articles.com
essaywritingservice10.com
hindusamaaj.com
joggingvideo.com
wandercoups.com
wormblaster.net
tongchengchuyange0004.com
internetknowing.com
breachurch.com
peachesnginburlesque.com
dataarchitectoo.com
clientfunnelformula.com
30pps.com
cherylroll.com
ks2252.com
prowp.net
webmanicura.com
sofietsshotel.com
facetorch.com
nylawyerreview.com
apapromotions.com
shareparelli.com
goeaglepointe.com
thegreenmanpubphuket.com
karotorossian.com
publicsensor.com
taiwandefence.com
epcsur.com
southstills.com
tvtv98.com
thewellington-hotel.com
bccaipiao.com
colectoresindustrialesgs.com
shenanddcg.com
capriartfilmfestival.com
replicabreitlingsale.com
thaiamarinnewtoncorner.com
gkmcww.com
mbnkbj.com
andrewbrennandesign.com
cod54.com
luobinzhang.com
faithfirst.net
zjyc28.com
tongchengjinyeyouyue0004.com
nhuan6.com
kftz5k.com
oldgardensflowers.com
lightupthefloor.com
bahamamamas-stjohns.com
ly2818.com
905onthebay.com
fonemenu.com
notanothermovie.com
ukrainehighclassescort.com
meincmagazine.com
av-5858.com
yallerdawg.com
donkeythemovie.com
corporatehospitalitygroup.com
boboyy88.com
miteinander-lernen.com
dannayconsulting.com
officialtomsshoesoutletstore.com
forsale-amoxil-amoxicillin.net
generictadalafil-canada.net
guitarlessonseastlondon.com
lesliesrestaurants.com
mattyno9.com
nri-homeloans.com
rtgvisas-qatar.com
salbutamolventolinonline.net
sportsinjuries.info
wedsna.com
rgkntk.com
bkkmarketplace.com
zxqcwx.com
breakupprogram.com
boxcardc.com
unblockyoutubeindonesia.com
fabulousbookmark.com
beat-the.com
guatemala-sailfishing-vacations-charters.com
magie-marketing.com
kingstonliteracy.com
guitaraffinity.com
eurelookinggoodapparel.com
howtolosecheekfat.net
marioncma.org
oliviadavismusic.com
shantelcampbellrealestate.com
shopleborn13.com
topindiafree.com
v-visitors.net
djjky.com
053hh.com
originbluei.com
baucishotel.com
33kkn.com
intrinsiqresearch.com
mariaescort-kiev.com
mymaguk.com
sponsored4u.com
crimsonclass.com
bataillenavale.com
searchtile.com
ze-stribrnych-struh.com
zenithalhype.com
modalpkv.com
bouisset-lafforgue.com
useupload.com
37r.net
autoankauf-muenster.com
bantinbongda.net
bilgius.com
brabustermagazine.com
indigrow.org
miicrosofts.net
mysmiletravel.com
selinasims.com
spellcubesapp.com
usa-faction.com
hypoallergenicdogsnames.com
dailyupdatez.com
foodphotographyreviews.com
cricutcom-setup.com
chprowebdesign.com
katyrealty-kanepa.com
tasramar.com
bilgipinari.org
four-am.com
indiarepublicday.com
inquick-enbooks.com
iracmpi.com
kakaschoenen.com
lsm99flash.com
nana1255.com
ngen-niagara.com
technwzs.com
virtualonlinecasino1345.com
wallpapertop.net
casino-natali.com
iprofit-internet.com
denochemexicana.com
eventhalfkg.com
medcon-taiwan.com
life-himawari.com
myriamshomes.com
nightmarevue.com
healthandfitnesslives.com
androidnews-jp.com
allstarsru.com
bestofthebuckeyestate.com
bestofthefirststate.com
bestwireless7.com
britsmile.com
declarationintermittent.com
findhereall.com
jingyou888.com
lsm99deal.com
lsm99galaxy.com
moozatech.com
nuagh.com
patliyo.com
philomenamagikz.net
rckouba.net
saturnunipessoallda.com
tallahasseefrolics.com
thematurehardcore.net
totalenvironment-inthatquietearth.com
velislavakaymakanova.com
vermontenergetic.com
kakakpintar.com
begorgeouslady.com
1800birks4u.com
2wheelstogo.com
6strip4you.com
bigdata-world.net
emailandco.net
gacapal.com
jharpost.com
krishnaastro.com
lsm99credit.com
mascalzonicampani.com
sitemapxml.org
thecityslums.net
topagh.com
flairnetwebdesign.com
rajasthancarservices.com
bangkaeair.com
beneventocoupon.com
noternet.org
oqtive.com
smilebrightrx.com
decollage-etiquette.com
1millionbestdownloads.com
7658.info
bidbass.com
devlopworldtech.com
digitalmarketingrajkot.com
fluginfo.net
naqlafshk.com
passion-decouverte.com
playsirius.com
spacceleratorintl.com
stikyballs.com
top10way.com
yokidsyogurt.com
zszyhl.com
16firthcrescent.com
abogadolaboralistamd.com
apk2wap.com
aromacremeria.com
banparacard.com
bosmanraws.com
businessproviderblog.com
caltonosa.com
calvaryrevivalchurch.org
chastenedsoulwithabrokenheart.com
cheminotsgardcevennes.com
cooksspot.com
cqxzpt.com
deesywig.com
deltacartoonmaps.com
despixelsetdeshommes.com
duocoracaobrasileiro.com
fareshopbd.com
goodpainspills.com
hemendekor.com
kobisitecdn.com
makaigoods.com
mgs1454.com
piccadillyresidences.com
radiolaondafresca.com
rubendorf.com
searchengineimprov.com
sellmyhrvahome.com
shugahouseessentials.com
sonihullquad.com
subtractkilos.com
valeriekelmansky.com
vipasdigitalmarketing.com
voolivrerj.com
zeelonggroup.com
1015southrockhill.com
10x10b.com
111-online-casinos.com
191cb.com
3665arpentunitd.com
aitesonics.com
bag-shokunin.com
brightotech.com
communication-digitale-services.com
covoakland.org
dariaprimapack.com
freefortniteaccountss.com
gatebizglobal.com
global1entertainmentnews.com
greatytene.com
hiroshiwakita.com
iktodaypk.com
jahatsakong.com
meadowbrookgolfgroup.com
newsbharati.net
platinumstudiosdesign.com
slotxogamesplay.com
strikestaruk.com
trucosdefortnite.com
ufabetrune.com
weddedtowhitmore.com
12940brycecanyonunitb.com
1311dietrichoaks.com
2monarchtraceunit303.com
601legendhill.com
850elaine.com
adieusolasomade.com
andora-ke.com
bestslotxogames.com
cannagomcallen.com
endlesslyhot.com
iestpjva.com
ouqprint.com
pwmaplefest.com
qtylmr.com
rb88betting.com
buscadogues.com
1007macfm.com
born-wild.com
growthinvests.com
promocode-casino.com
proyectogalgoargentina.com
wbthompson-art.com
whitemountainwheels.com
7thavehvl.com
developmethis.com
funkydogbowties.com
travelodgegrandjunction.com
gao-town.com
globalmarketsuite.com
blogshippo.com
hdbka.com
proboards67.com
outletonline-michaelkors.com
kalkis-research.com
thuthuatit.net
buckcash.com
hollistercanada.com
docterror.com
asadart.com
vmayke.org
erwincomputers.com
dirimart.org
okkii.com
loteriasdecehegin.com
mountanalog.com
healingtaobritain.com
ttxmonitor.com
nwordpress.com
11bolabonanza.com