To the surprise of many, the Cincinnati Bengals are 0-2 to start the NFL season. Count Joe Burrow among the stunned.
The Bengals’ star quarterback is determined to get Cincinnati on the right track and my Commanders vs. Bengals predictions have him racking up the touchdown passes on Monday Night Football.
I size up the spread and total for this non-conference primetime clash and give my best NFL picks for September 23.
Commanders vs Bengals MNF prediction
My best bet
Joe Burrow Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-160 at FanDuel)
My analysis
A big spread and a taller total call for plenty of points from the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday night. That means a healthy dose of Joe Burrow.
Burrow overcame a poor showing in Week 1’s upset loss to New England with a strong performance against the Chiefs last Sunday, despite concerns about his wrist heading into Week 2. The Bengals quarterback threw for two touchdowns and 258 yards against one of the best secondaries in the NFL.
Cincinnati comes home determined to pick up its first win of the year against a Washington Commanders' defense having a hard time adjusting to its new schemes under head coach Dan Quinn.
The Commanders are dead last in EPA allowed per dropback and 31st in opponents’ success rate per pass, watching Baker Mayfield and Daniel Jones boast a collective 127.6 passer rating in the opening two games. Those two QBs threw for a combined six touchdowns.
What’s more, Quinn’s defense loves to blitz, bringing extra pass rushers at the fourth-highest rate through the opening weeks of 2024. While Burrow’s 2024 stats are skewed due to the off outing in Week 1, he’s traditionally one of the better quarterbacks at punishing blitz-heavy attacks.
Burrow is by far the best quarterback Washington will run into this season. Not only is he hungry for a win but has his receiving corps back at full strength in Week 3.
Receiver Tee Higgins will make his 2024 debut on Monday night, giving Burrow one of his favorite targets in the red zone. The 6-foot-4 Higgins has scored 24 touchdowns in his four years with the franchise.
Week 3 player projections all sit well north of the 1.5-touchdown total for Burrow on MNF, ranging from 1.89 to 2.11 scoring strikes. My number is at 2.05 touchdowns from the LSU product and that could be conservative considering the Commanders’ red-zone defense has given up TDs on 75% of stands inside the 20-yard line.
After a bumpy start to 2024, Burrow & Co. will look to win back the Cincy faithful with a big outing in primetime, headlined by at least two passing touchdowns from the Bengals star player.
Commanders vs Bengals MNF same-game parlay
Joe Burrow 2+ TD passes
Tee Higgins anytime touchdown
Bengals moneyline
Burrow’s is projected for at least two TD passes against the worst pass defense in the NFL.
Higgins returns in a big way, hauling in a touchdown in his first game of 2024.
The Bengals don’t mess around on Monday and get their first win of the season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Commanders vs Bengals odds
Commanders vs Bengals live odds
Commanders vs Bengals opening odds
- Spread: Washington +7.5 | Cincinnati -7.5
- Moneyline: Washington +275 | Cincinnati -350
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 | Under 47.5
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
Commanders vs Bengals spread and Over/Under analysis
• Cincinnati was a touchdown favorite on the look-ahead lines in the summer. Even with a 0-2 start, the official Week 3 odds opened the Bengals as 7.5-point home chalk for Monday Night Football. That spread has bounced between that opener and -8 throughout the week, and is as low as a touchdown at some books.
• Over at FanDuel, 59% of tickets and 56% of handle are on the Bengals spread.
• The Over/Under hit the board at 47.5 points and moved to 48.5 before taking a tumble down to 46.5 O/U on Wednesday. According to Covers Consensus, 61% of picks are on the Under.
• FanDuel bettors are divided on their moneyline wagers. 66% of tickets are on the Commanders while 67% of handle is on the Bengals.
Commanders vs Bengals betting trend to know
Cincinnati is 17-8 SU and 14-9-2 ATS as a favorite since 2022, but just 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS when laying six or more points. Find more NFL betting trends for Commanders vs. Bengals.
Commanders vs Bengals game info
| Location: | Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date: | Monday, 9-23, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
Commanders vs Bengals latest injuries
Commanders vs Bengals weather
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