The 5-7 Indianapolis Colts are entering must-win territory to stay alive in the playoff hunt, but a very favorable matchup starts on Sunday when they travel to take on the 3-9 New England Patriots.
The Colts have lost four of the last five, but they are 4-1 against teams with a losing record this season. My Colts vs. Patriots predictions believe the Colts will continue their winning ways over teams with losing records.
Find out why I am backing the road team in my NFL picks for Sunday, December 1. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. EST from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, with the game airing on CBS.
Colts vs Patriots prediction
Who will win?
The Colts have won two of the past three matchups in this old rivalry. Indianapolis is a small favorite at -140 on the moneyline on the road, and I think they continue their winning ways over teams with losing records.
The Patriots have only surpassed 20 points in three of the 12 games this season. The Colts do not have a very good defense, but they did hold the Bears, Titans, and Dolphins to 17 points or less. I believe we will see a similar performance in this contest.
My best bet
Pick: Colts -2.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Indianapolis Colts currently find themselves two games back in both the AFC South and AFC Wildcard races. This is an absolute must-win game for them before they finally get their bye week next week. They play a team they are currently trailing in the Wildcard standings in two weeks before finishing off the season with three teams that have a combined seven wins.
Meanwhile, the New England Patriots are just trying to get some positive experience for their rookie quarterback, Drake Maye. He has played well since taking over the starting job two months ago, but the team is still 2-5 in his seven starts. There are just too many issues around him for his talent to convert to wins.
The Patriots stack the box at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL at 28.3%. Despite that high rate, they still rank 17th in run stuff percentage and 15th in rushing yards allowed. Opponents have found ways to run outside the tackles against the Patriots' stacked box. Meanwhile, Jonathan Taylor averages 5.1 yards per carry on carries that are outside the tackles.
Additionally, Taylor has generated an explosive rush of more than 10 yards on 18.8% of his outside carries, which is the second-best rate in the NFL. The Patriots have allowed 29 explosive runs outside the tackles this season, which is the sixth most in the league. The Patriots also run a ton of cover 2, which is the one defense that Anthony Richardson seems to have success against.
Richardson has a league-high 12.2 yards per attempt and a passer rating of 123.8, which is third best in the NFL, against cover 2 this season. The Colts should be able to find their offense in this game, while the Patriots cannot seem to find any offense against any defense. The Colts should keep their playoff hopes alive with a win before heading to their bye week.
Colts vs Patriots same-game parlay
Colts -2.5
Jonathan Taylor Over 81.5 rushing yards
Drake Maye Over 0.5 interceptions
To go along with our best bet, I am going to take Jonathan Taylor’s rushing prop since he should be able to find success running outside the tackles. Taylor has struggled each of the last two games but ran for 88 or more yards in five of the previous six games, and this is a great matchup for him.
Finally, I will add Drake Maye to throw an interception. He has thrown seven picks in his seven starts, and the Colts are decent at forcing interceptions. They also forced Caleb Williams to throw two picks earlier this season in their lone game against a rookie quarterback.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Colts vs Patriots odds
Colts vs Patriots live odds
Colts vs Patriots opening odds
- Spread: Indianapolis -2.5 (-110) | New England +2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Indianapolis (-145) | New England (+120)
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 (-110) | Under 42.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Colts vs Patriots spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread was Colts -2.5 before the season and opened at the same number this week and has remained there as of Saturday afternoon.
- The favorite has covered six of the last nine matchups between these two teams.
- The total was 44 before the season and re-opened at 42.5 this week and has not moved as of Saturday afternoon.
- Each of the previous three matchups went Under the total.
- 70% of Covers Consensus users are backing Indianapolis on the spread, while 55% are taking the Under.
Colts vs Patriots betting trend to know
The Indianapolis Colts have covered the spread in 12 of their last 21 games, and the New England Patriots have only covered the Spread in two of their last 10 games at home. Find more NFL betting trends for Colts vs. Patriots.
How to watch Colts vs Patriots game info
| Location: | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-1, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Colts vs Patriots latest injuries
Colts vs Patriots weather
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