Cardinals vs Falcons Week 17 Picks and Predictions: Arizona Keeps It On the Ground

Two teams that won’t be in the playoffs are set to meet, as the 4-11 Arizona Cardinals are traveling to Georgia to take on the 5-10 Atlanta Falcons.

The Cardinals lost their fifth in a row to Tampa Bay last week, and the Falcons saw their slim playoff chances shot when they were defeated by Baltimore in their fourth consecutive loss.

Who will break their multi-game losing streak on Sunday? Find out in our free NFL picks and predictions for Cardinals vs. Falcons on January 1.

Cardinals vs Falcons best odds

Cardinals vs Falcons picks and predictions

Under head coach Kliff Kingsbury, the Arizona Cardinals have always had a throw-first mentality. The team is averaging 214.6 yards a game, even with subpar quarterbacks.

The Cardinals are now onto their fourth QB of the season as Sunday looms closer. Starter Kyler Murray is out with a blown ACL, Colt McCoy is in concussion protocol, and Trace McSorley was ineffective in his two starts against Denver and New England.

Kingsbury, who is fighting to keep his job, decided to give the offense over to David Blough. Blough’s previous NFL experience was five starts with a really bad Detroit Lions team. The undrafted Blough, who was most recently on the Minnesota Vikings practice squad, will now be trusted to lead the Cardinals in a game that essentially means nothing to them.

But how much will Kingsbury rely on him? His most recent action was in 2021, when he was with Detroit and. In total, Blough has just five starts of NFL experience with a career passer rating of 62.2.

Instead of completely rolling the dice with Blough, Kingsbury might be relying much more on the run game. The player responsible for a majority of that production will be lead running back James Conner.

Conner has been the lone bright spot for the Cardinals. Since returning from a chest injury in November that caused him to miss a month of the season, Conner has been very productive. In his last four games, Conner is averaging 86.7 yards per game. He has had 15 or more carries in all of those starts. 

The Atlanta Falcons have had trouble stopping the run this year. They rank 24th in rushing defense, allowing an average of 133.5 yards a game. This would be a perfect spot for Kingsbury to utilize Conner more. 

I think Conner gets at least 20 carries and goes Over the total. 

My best bet: James Conner Over 71.5 rushing yards (-117)

Cardinals vs Falcons

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Cardinals vs Falcons spread analysis

This game is going to be dreadful. The two starting quarterbacks have struggled in their limited time under center. Blough was most recently on the practice squad in Minnesota, and Atlanta’s Desmond Ridder has been ineffective, with zero touchdown passes in his two starts with the Falcons this season.

Like the Cardinals, the Falcons might be relying more on the run. Running back Tyler Allgeier has been dependable for Atlanta this season. In his last two games, he has rushed for 74 and 139 yards. 

Arizona’s run defense is much better than Atlanta’s, however. The Cardinals rank 12th in rushing defense, allowing an average of 114.3 yards a game. 

The line on this game opened at Atlanta -3.5 but has since jumped a point at most sportsbooks. The Cardinals, however, are 5-2 against the spread versus a team with a losing record and are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games. 

The Falcons are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss and are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

Arizona might not be able to win this game outright, but they should at least cover.

Cardinals vs Falcons Over/Under analysis

The first reaction would be that this is going to be a low-scoring game with each team’s weakness at quarterback. The total opened at 41 and has moved up half a point to 41.5. 

The total has gone Over the last four times the Cardinals and Falcons have met, and the Over is 5-1 for the Cardinals in their last six against NFC opponents. The Over has also hit in seven of Arizona’s last nine games. 

Meanwhile, the Falcons have hit the Under in their last four games and are 4-1 in their last five games on the Under following an ATS loss. 

The Falcons are 23rd in points allowed, averaging 23.3 a game, while the Cardinals are 30th (26.1). The two teams are a little better at scoring points, as the Falcons are 17th with 21.1 a game. The Cardinals come in a little behind at 21st, putting up 20.5 per contest.

I think both squads will go a touch above their season average, and this game will go Over 41.5.  

Cardinals vs Falcons betting trend to know

The Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the two teams when playing in Atlanta. Find more NFL betting trends for Cardinals vs. Falcons.

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