The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are trying to tighten their grip on the NFC South when they visit the Dallas Cowboys for Sunday Night Football in Week 16.
Tampa Bay’s four-game winning run has them atop the division, but my Buccaneers vs. Cowboys predictions like Dallas this week. Find out why in my NFL picks for December 22 below.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys predictions
Early spread lean
Cowboys +4 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Dallas Cowboys were a money pit for NFL bettors in the first half of the season, but the market has made a hard correction on the Cowboys, and we’ve seen them win and cover in three of their last four games.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers scored a one-sided win over the Chargers on Sunday, but the three wins prior came against the three worst teams in the NFL: Carolina, N.Y. Giants, and Las Vegas.
Tampa Bay’s defense is dreadful, especially against the pass. It’s allowing an opponent success rate per dropback of 49.8% — third worst in the NFL — while watching rival quarterbacks boast a collective passer rating of 96.4.
Dallas is having success moving the ball through the air in recent games, with QB2 Cooper Rush settling in as the starter. That air attack has fueled the offense to average almost 28 points per game over the past four contests.
Four is an undervalued key number in NFL betting, and I’m not sure the Bucs should be handing the home team that many points. I’ll lean toward Cowboys +4 on Sunday Night Football.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 49.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
This total was as low as 47.5 points, but we’ve seen it tick up to just shy of 50 points for SNF.
As mentioned above, Tampa Bay has trouble slowing down the passing game and has allowed 44 receptions of 20+ yards, including seven for 40+. Luckily, the Bucs can counter those shortcomings with yardage of their own.
The Buccaneers have broken out for big scores during this winning streak, averaging 31 points per game. Tampa Bay has a downfield threat with Baker Mayfield and WR Mike Evans, which works well against the aggressive zone schemes of Cowboys coordinator Mike Zimmer but can really stick it to the Dallas defense with standout rookie RB Bucky Irving and shifty back Rashaad White.
Dallas ranks as the worst run-stop unit in the NFL, sitting dead last in EPA allowed per handoff, 26th in opponent success rate per run, and 28th in yards allowed per carry.
Both teams have identical 9-5 Over/Under records, and with this primetime game being played on the clean indoor track at AT&T Stadium, I predict plenty of points. I already bet the Over at the shorter total when odds opened on Sunday night.
New Users
Choose your welcome bonus at bet365
Get in on the SNF action at bet365, which is offering new users a choice of two incredible offers:
- Up to $1,000 in bonus bets back (if your first bet doesn't win)
- Bet $5, get $150 in bonus bets instantly
Sign up now to pick your offer at bet365, or learn more with our comprehensive bet365 review.
Eligible U.S. locations only.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys live odds
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
