We're into the home stretch of the NFL regular season, with bye weeks finished for the year and a full buffet of NFL player props back available to us.
There's no shortage of NFL Week 15 props that showed value, but after kicking things off with a dud of a pick for a dud of a TNF game, I'm heading into the weekend backing a dominant running back coming off a week of rest, a couple of wide receivers that should do anything but rest this week... and a running back facing the Carolina Panthers.
NFL Week 15 prop picks
Jauan Jennings o66.5 rec yards (-120)
Henry long rush o20.5 yards (-110)
Wilson o61.5 rec yards (-110)
Addison o52.5 rec yards (-115)
Dowdle o83.5 rush yards (-110)
Click on each pick to see full analysis.
NFL prop picks for Week 15
Rico Dowdle Over 83.5 rushing yards (-110)
Rico Dowdle faces the Carolina Panthers and he will run all over them as everybody else has this season.
That's it. That's the entire handicap.
What? You want more?
OK, chew on this then: This embarrassment of a "run defense" has allowed a league-worst 170 rushing yards per game (23 per game more than the 31st-ranked run D) and 139 ypg to running backs. Carolina has somehow been even worse as of late, giving up 186 ypg over its last eight games, with five opponents hitting 197+.
Here are the rushing totals for the RB1 in each of those games: 124, 152, 68, 103, 155, 47, 71, and 105 (with a second back getting 95 for good measure).
The Dallas Cowboys run game ranks among the league's worst over the entire season but it's come to life the past three games, coinciding with Dowdle toting the rock a lot more. After averaging about 10 carries per game over his first nine games, he's had 18+ rushing attempts in each of his last three games, registering 86, 112, and 131 yards.
He had one other game this season with more than 12 carries — Week 5 vs. the Steelers, when he had 20 attempts — and churned out 87 yards. We've seen QB Cooper Rush struggle against bad defenses, so I'm expecting Dowdle to get a heavy workload again on Sunday... and join the club of runners that punished the Panthers.
(That enough analysis for ya?)
Pick: Rico Dowdle Over 83.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Pick made on 12-13
Jordan Addison Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Second-year WR Jordan Addison has sprung to life over the last four games, going from less than five targets and 43 yards per game over his first seven matchups... to getting about nine targets and 103 yards per week over the last month.
That includes topping his Week 15 yardage total in each of those four games, as he's thrived with opposing defenses keying in on his superstar teammate Justin Jefferson. Addison and the Minnesota Vikings host the Chicago Bears for a divisional matchup on Monday night, where Addison again is set for an exploitable matchup.
Chicago's pass defense has somewhat fallen apart over the past few weeks, giving up 260+ yards in three of its last four games (and 325+ twice) and coughing up explosive pass plays at a nearly 50% rate. It's allowed six pass-catchers to hit 73+ yards in that span, including 162 yards to Addison three weeks ago.
In that game, Chicago's top corner Jaylon Johnson spent most of his time on Jefferson, leaving Addison to shred the rest of the Bears' defensive backs. I'd expect more of the same for Minnesota's vertical threat this week as he will see a lot of Tyrique Stevenson, who spends almost all his time on the perimeter opposite Johnson and, well, has been bad.
Stevenson allows the fourth-highest explosive pass-play rate and the most yards per coverage snap among perimeter corners (per Pro Football Focus), while Addison ranks among the Top-8 WRs in deep-target rate and aDOT, meaning there is some big-play potential to help us get Over this line quickly.
I'm not expecting another 162-yard effort in Week 15, but inside the dome U.S. Bank Stadium, 53+ yards is very much attainable; especially with industry projections sitting at 60 yards and ranging as high as 66 for him on Monday.
Pick: Jordan Addison Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Pick made on 12-13
Derrick Henry longest rush Over 20.5 yards (-110)
The NFL's most punishing running back, Derrick Henry, is coming out of his bye week to face one of the league's most pathetic run defenses in the New York Giants — what could go wrong?
For the G-Men... everything?
However, with Henry's rushing yards prop sitting in triple-digits — a bit too meaty for my taste — I'm going to look at his longest rush prop, which is currently sitting at 20.5 yards. Despite King Henry hitting a bit of a lull, topping 80 yards just twice in his last six games, he's recorded a 20+ yard run four times in that span and 10 of his last 12 games overall.
Plus, with a week off to rest prior to this matchup, the Baltimore Ravens star should look more like the RB who is fifth in the NFL in missed tackles forced, second in yards after contact, and first with 14 runs of 20+ yards.
Meanwhile, New York just held Alvin Kamara to 44 rushing yards... but it still ranks 29th in rushing yards allowed to RBs, 30th in yards per attempt, and dead last in 20+ yard runs allowed.
The Giants are also starting Tommy DeVito at quarterback (spoiler alert: he's bad), so Baltimore should dominate time of possession and feed Henry more than enough carries to break off a big run (or three).
Pick: Derrick Henry longest rush Over 20.5 yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Pick made on 12-12
Garrett Wilson Over 61.5 receiving yards (-110)
Yes, the New York Jets are a disaster at 3-10 and the Aaron Rodgers experiment has gone oh-so-horribly wrong, but with star RB Breece Hall injured and the team just playing out the fiddle... I'm expecting to see Rodgers sling it as much as possible.
Whether it's to prove to the Jets, to other teams, or just to himself that he's still a capable NFL quarterback, A-a-ron isn't going to shy away from passing at every opportunity — which should mean a big day for wide receiver Garrett Wilson against the Jacksonville Jaguars' subpar pass defense.
Both he and Davante Adams are appealing options, but considering the Jags deploy man-to-man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league, I'm leaning toward the third-year pro in Wilson, who is the more explosive receiver at this point.
Since Adams joined the Jets, he has a slightly higher target share vs. man coverage, but Wilson has a much higher catch rate, yards per catch, and aDOT when facing man-to-man. He's also sixth among all WRs in yards vs. man during that eight-week span, while the Jags have also allowed the third-highest completion rate this season.
Jacksonville is also prone to giving up big pass plays, sitting last in 20+ yard completions (58) and 40+ yard passes (10) allowed, and Wilson's speed and agility means a chunk play is always possible, giving more outs for him to top this modest total.
Pick: Garrett Wilson Over 61.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Pick made on 12-12
Jauan Jennings Over 66.5 receiving yards (-120)
Jauan Jennings has been on a roll since returning from a two-game absence, leading the San Francisco 49ers with a 33% target share over the last five weeks, while sitting fifth in the NFL in catches (32) and 11th in receiving yards (370) during that span.
He's recorded 90+ yards in three of those five games, with the failures coming in a game with backup QB Brandon Allen starting... and a blizzard game at Buffalo where it was 28 degrees out.
Tonight, Jennings and the Niners are in the comfy confines of Levi's Stadium to host the Los Angeles Rams, who are 24th in passing yards against per game, 30th in yards per catch, and just allowed two separate Bills WRs to top 90+ yards.
Los Angeles allowed Jennings to go for a season-high 11 catches and 175 yards earlier this season and this could be a very pass-conducive game script: The Niners' defense has been struggling without Nick Bosa and Dre Greenlaw (both still questionable for TNF), the Rams' offense has been hot, and San Fran may be down to its fourth-string running back.
We could see 49ers' QB1 Brock Purdy slinging up tonight, which means plenty of looks for his favorite target.
Pick: Jauan Jennings Over 66.5 receiving yards (-120 at BetMGM)
Pick made on 12-12
NFL Week 15 prop betting card
- Jauan Jennings Over 66.5 receiving yards (-120)
- Derrick Henry longest rush Over 20.5 yards (-110)
- Garrett Wilson Over 61.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Jordan Addison Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
- Rico Dowdle Over 83.5 rushing yards (-110)
Last week: 4-1, +2.69 units
Season: 35-35, -4.46 units
Not intended for use in MA.
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