Happy Thanksgiving weekend! A wonderful time full of friends, food, and football.
I know you've already filled up on heaping sides of stuffing, mashed potatoes, and cornbread (and if you haven't added cornbread to your spread, try it out — you're welcome), but hopefully, you've saved some room to feast on NFL best bets and player props.
Things kicked off with a 1-1 day on Thanksgiving — here are four more props for Week 13 to fill up on today.
NFL Week 13 prop picks
Gibbs long rush o17.5 yards (-105)
Rush o205.5 pass yards (-110)
Collins long reception o27.5 yards (-115)
Nacua o78.5 receiving yards (-110)
Evans o56.5 receiving yards (-135)- Irving o54.5 rushing yards (-114)
Click on each pick to see full analysis, or click here to view the full betting card.
NFL best bets and prop picks for Week 13
Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush Over 17.5 yards (-105)
Jahmyr Gibbs has lived up to his "Sonic" nickname, terrorizing opposing defenses with his explosiveness: He's third among all RBs in runs of 10+ yards, 13th in yards after contact, and first in designed runs of 15+ yards.
He's a threat to break any run into a monster gain — and gets ample opportunities in the Detroit Lions' run-heavy offense — and has recorded a run of 18+ yards in eight of his last 10 games (with his two misses having long runs of 15 and 17 yards).
Gibbs and the Lions kick off today's festivities with a 12:30 p.m. game against the Chicago Bears, who have surrendered 151 yards per game over its last five contests, with eight runs of 15+ yards allowed over that span, plus starting safety Elijah Hicks is questionable with an ankle injury.
Detroit may also opt to lean on Gibbs today, as his backfield partner David Montgomery is nursing a shoulder injury and this is a short week, meaning the electric Gibbs could have extra chances to break off a big play on Thanksgiving Day.
Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush Over 17.5 yards (-105 at BetMGM)
Pick made on 11-27
Cooper Rush Over 205.5 pass yards (-110)
Listen, we all know Cooper Rush is not good... but he's actually shown an ability to throw the ball over the past two weeks, registering 354 yards against the Texans and 247 against the Commanders, and now he gets to face a New York Giants defense that is:
a) Horrendous.
b) Quit.
c) Horrendous.
Baker Mayfield picked the G-Men apart on Sunday, completing 24/30 passes for 294 yards — including 230 yards in the first half alone — and while I'm not saying the current Dallas Cowboys quarterback is going to do that, 206 total pass yards does seem a tad low.
The biggest thing that could derail this prop is the Cowboys just running endlessly (considering New York is arguably the worst run defense in the league)... but Dallas is 31st in rushing yards per game and yards per carry — the better option is to get the ball in the hands of CeeDee Lamb as much as possible.
It's also not like the Giants are a good pass defense; they allow the third-highest completion percentage in the NFL and have a whopping one sack in their last three games combined.
Industry projections range as high as 231 for Rush this afternoon, adding a bit of extra confidence he can get past this tiny number in what is the official "you can totally miss this while you eat your Thanksgiving dinner" game of the day.
Pick: Cooper Rush Over 205.5 pass yards (-110 at bet365)
Pick made on 11-27
Nico Collins longest reception Over 27.5 yards (-115)
Nico Collins is borderline unfair; he leads the NFL with almost 102 receiving yards per game, is eighth in yards per route run, and 13th in catches of 20+ yards — despite missing five games this season.
He's also had an 87-yard catch and 33-yard catch called back on penalties over the last two weeks, yet still has topped this long reception number in six of the seven games played this season for the Houston Texans.
His one failure was a long catch of 26 yards against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 4 (when he had a season-high 12 catches and 151 yards) but I think he gets his revenge this Sunday against a Jags secondary that has gotten worse as the season has progressed.
Jacksonville has allowed a league-leading 52 catches of 20+ yards (and nine catches of 40+ yards) this season, coughed up the fourth-most yards per game to WR, and the second-highest completion percentage.
The Jaguars are also dead-last in pass rush win rate, have the lowest blitz rate, and are 31st in QB pressure rate — if you give Texans QB C.J. Stroud time to throw, he will make you pay... and against the man-heavy Jaguars, Collins will more often than not at the other end of it.
Pick: Nico Collins longest reception Over 27.5 yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Pick made on 11-28
Puka Nacua Over 78.5 receiving yards (-110)
It was a rough start to the season for Puka Nacua, who was injured in Week 1 and would miss the next five games, but he's been a bona fide No. 1 receiver for the Los Angeles Rams since his return.
In four full games played (he was ejected in the second quarter of Week 9), Nacua has 111 yards per game — with at least seven catches, nine targets, and 98 yards in each contest.
Week 13 will see Nacua and the Rams face the New Orleans Saints, who have allowed the fifth-most yards to receivers this season and were last seen giving up 395 to the Browns two weeks ago.
New Orleans has allowed an opposing quarterback to throw for 279+ yards in five of their last seven games, with six pass-catchers going for 87+ yards in their last four outings; coinciding with former star CB Marshon Lattimore no longer taking the field (injured then traded).
Industry projections sit at around 84 yards for the second-year wideout on Sunday — and range as high as 91 yards — giving us extra confidence in him to continue his strong play.
Pick: Puka Nacua Over 78.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Pick made on 11-28
Mike Evans Over 56.5 receiving yards (-115)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers got star wide receiver Mike Evans back last week, following a three-game absence due to a hamstring injury, and he looked none the worse for wear, catching five of six targets for 68 yards against the Giants.
It wasn't the flashiest of numbers, but it was promising considering almost all of his damage came in the first half, before having a quiet final 30 minutes in a blowout win, and he still registered almost 70 yards despite playing just 60% of the snaps (his second-lowest percentage for a full game this season).
We should see Evans' workload increase a bit more this week, which means he should have a big day against a Panthers defense that is 24th in passing yards allowed, 28th in completion rate against, and 32nd in QB pressure rate.
Carolina's offense has shown signs of life lately, which means there's a little bit more of a chance that Evans could need to play a little bit deeper in this game than compared to last week. Industry projections sit around 67 yards for Evans this week, and considering Mikey's recent history vs. the Panthers — 77+ yards in five of his last six matchups — I like his chances to top this modest total on Sunday.
That said, the Panthers run defense is just so bad...
Pick: Mike Evans Over 56.5 receiving yards (-135 at BetMGM)
Pick made on 11-29
Bucky Irving Over 54.5 rushing yards (-114)
...that I'm doing a Buccaneers double-dip and also betting on a running back prop!
Now, when I say the Panthers' run defense is bad, I mean like bad-bad. Just look at their run defense rankings:
- Rushing yards per game to RBs: 32nd (129.5)
- Run stop win rate: 32nd (26%)
- Missed tackles: 27th (80)
- Yards per rush attempt: 25th (4.7)
Carolina has surrendered 165+ rushing yards in five of its last six games, which is good news for Bucky Irving, who seems to have finally taken over as the main weapon in Tampa Bay's crowded backfield.
The rookie has had a team-leading 25 rushing attempts over the last two games, with his 6.4 yards per carry doubling that of Rachaad White, his 150 yards after contact almost triple that of White, plus he has seven missed tackles and four runs of 10+ yards (vs. one and zero for White while Sean Tucker only had a handful of short-yardage carries).
The result is that Irving has posted rushing totals of 87 and 73 yards in those two games, and if he gets another 12-13 carries this week, his big-gain ability against the league's worst run defense should be more than enough to carry run past his yardage total.
Pick: Bucky Irving Over 54.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Pick made on 11-29
NFL Week 13 prop betting card
- Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush Over 17.5 yards (-105)
- Cooper Rush Over 205.5 pass yards (-110)
- Nico Collins longest reception Over 27.5 yards (-115)
- Puka Nacua Over 78.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Mike Evans Over 56.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Bucky Irving Over 54.5 rushing yards (-114)
Last week: 3-2, +0.62 units
Season: 27-33, -8.62 units
Not intended for use in MA.
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