The Mountain West has two familiar faces in the championship game this Friday night at Albertsons Stadium as the No. 10 Boise State Broncos (11-1) host the UNLV Rebels (10-2).
It’s a rematch of the 2023 Mountain West Championship game, which saw Boise State survive with a comfortable 44-20 victory. Spencer Danielson’s Broncos are hoping for a repeat result to punch their tickets to the College Football Playoff while simultaneously winning back-to-back MWC titles for the first time in program history.
Read on for my UNLV vs. Boise State predictions and college football picks for Friday, December 6.
UNLV vs Boise State predictions
Early spread lean
UNLV +3.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
It may feel disrespectful to fade Ashton Jeanty and the Boise State Broncos now — one win away from the CFP — considering how dominant they’ve been. Vibes aside, the numbers point toward the UNLV Rebels catching just over a field goal, so I’m on the underdog as we start Championship Week.
These teams met on October 25 at Allegiant Stadium in Sin City with the Broncos picking up a 29-24 victory. While one could glance at that score and determine that Boise State won by five points on the road and therefore this week’s number at home is a gift, a closer look at the box score points me in the other direction.
UNLV gained 6.3 yards per play compared to 5.4 for Boise. That’s a significant difference, and it was offset by Boise being +1 in turnover margin. UNLV had a post-game win expectancy of 66%, which is a number I’d expect to be more repeatable in a rematch.
Barry Odom and his staff had a strong defensive game plan in that initial meeting, holding the vaunted Boise State rushing attack to its second-lowest yards per carry (4.6) and rushing yardage output (185) of the season.
That’s a crucial component to this game as most of Boise’s dominance is thanks to Jeanty laying waste to overmatched competition. The future NFL back has been unstoppable, putting forth 2,288 rushing yards and 28 touchdowns while paving the way for the nation’s sixth-ranked rushing offense in EPA per rush and fifth-best in rushing explosiveness.
An interesting thing about the numbers this week is that UNLV’s defense has the exact same rank in rushing success rate (18th) as Boise’s offense. The Rebels will need to limit too many of Jeanty’s explosives, but they did that in the first matchup and are well-coached on that side of the ball.
The Rebels have the better defense overall, ranking 14th in success rate compared to 40th for Boise. The Broncos have allowed far too many big plays (117th in explosiveness) and check in at just 69th in EPA per play on that side of the ball.
This should be yet another close game between these teams. Boise has been great this year, but so has UNLV — its only two losses came by a combined eight points against a Syracuse team that just beat Miami and a Boise team whose only loss was by a field goal against No. 1 Oregon.
I’d prefer to catch points rather than lay them in a close game.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 58.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
It’s scary playing an Under in a game where both offenses could hit explosive plays. That being said, neither team holds a huge advantage in success rate when it has the ball and we’ll likely have cold weather at Albertsons Stadium, so I can’t back the Over.
The weather will be about 40 degrees at kickoff, but it’ll only get colder throughout the game. While these teams did luck out since the weather could be much worse this time of year for a night game, it’ll still be cold, and offensive conditions will not be optimal.
Neither offense has been in much of a hurry this year — UNLV ranks 72nd in plays per minute while Boise is right behind at 79th. There’s no reason to expect a big change now after UNLV was content to hand on to the ball and run 73 plays compared to 58 for Boise in the first matchup.
Both teams prefer to keep the ball on the ground as well, meaning the clock should be ticking. The Rebels rank eighth in rush rate and racked up 188 rushing yards in the first matchup while throwing the ball just 22 times for 179 yards. The Broncos rank outside the Top 100 in pass rate despite being very efficient (11th in EPA per pass, 13th in passing success rate) when allowing quarterback Maddux Madsen to sling it.
Boise has played in three one-score games since Week 2 and all three went Under the total. That’s probably not a coincidence, since the only way for most teams to keep things close against them is to limit Jeanty’s output in any way possible and play keepaway on offense.
UNLV has tended to get into lower-scoring games when stepping up in competition, going 1-3 O/U against teams with a winning record. Quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams, wide receiver Ricky White, and running back Jai’Den Thomas tend to make lesser teams pay but can be held in check against better opponents.
The Rebels were completely shut down offensively in last year’s championship game, managing just 298 total yards on 4.5 yards per play. On the flip side, UNLV’s defense has drastically improved year-over-year led by strong contributions from Jackson Woodard, Cameron Oliver, Jalen Catalon, Tony Crimes, and company.
UNLV vs Boise State live odds
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