In the first FBS bowl of 2024, South Alabama takes on Western Michigan in Montgomery, Alabama.
Between the poor defensive play of both programs and the talented playmakers each team can lean on, tonight's South Alabama vs. Western Michigan predictions expect a high-scoring affair in my college football picks for Saturday, December 14.
Kickoff is set for 9:00 p.m. ET from the Crampton Bowl, with the game airing on ESPN.
South Alabama vs Western Michigan prediction and best bet
Who will win South Alabama vs Western Michigan?
If South Alabama were at full strength, I’d be confident in banging the table for them to win this game. However, even with the loss of running back Fluff Bothwell to the transfer portal and star quarterback Gio Lopez playing with an injury, I still think the Jaguars will come out victorious.
While I’m not confident in South Alabama’s ability to cover such a large spread as the favorite (-7.5), as long as Lopez is able to play, he should be able to do enough against a struggling Broncos’ defense.
In what I believe will be a high-scoring game to start bowl season, I have South Alabama winning 34-30.
My best bet
Over 57.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
While both teams have legit NFL prospects on offense, taking the Over is just as much about how bad the stop units have been this season.
Western Michigan enters Saturday 120th in SP+, with the Broncos allowing 31.4 points per game (31.4). Meanwhile, South Alabama's defense sits 90th in EPA per rush this season and is surrendering 397.4 total yards per game.
Luckily for the Jaguars, their offense has picked up the slack, ranking 48th in SP+ and 20th in points per game (34.8). Gio Lopez is a huge reason why, with the redshirt quarterback accounting for 25 touchdowns. He’s also surrounded by a strong group of playmakers, including NFL draft prospect Jamaal Pritchett.
As for the Broncos offense, they're only expected to be down tight end Blake Bosma after he decided to enter the transfer portal. However, this offense has the ability to keep humming, featuring the likes of veteran QB Hayden Wolff and a trio of productive running backs in Jalen Buckley, Jaden Nixon, and Zahir Abdus-Salaam.
Bank on a shootout at the Cramton Bowl on Saturday night.
South Alabama vs Western Michigan same-game parlay
Over 56.5
Jamaal Pritchett Over 74.5 receiving yards
Jamaal Pritchett anytime touchdown
If this Over is going to hit, Pritchett is going to be a huge reason why. He’s among the best receivers in the Group of Five and is eighth in the country in receiving yards (1,127).
Over Pritchett’s last seven outings, he’s averaging 104.6 receiving yards per game and ranks seventh in the nation in yards per route run (3.34).
To keep up with the Jaguars passing attack, Western Michigan will want to lean on its hot hand in the backfield. Down the stretch, Buckley reached paydirt six times over the final five games of the regular season. He should be able to add to that total in Montgomery.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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South Alabama vs Western Michigan odds
South Alabama vs Western Michigan live odds
South Alabama vs Western Michigan opening odds
- South Alabama vs. Western Michigan spread: Western Michigan +10
- South Alabama vs. Western Michigan moneyline: South Alabama -400, Western Michigan +310
- South Alabama vs. Western Michigan Over/Under: 59.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
South Alabama vs Western Michigan spread and Over/Under analysis
- South Alabama opened as a 10-point favorite, but the line has steadily moved in Western Michigan’s direction with most books offering the Jaguars -7.5.
- Both South Alabama and Western Michigan are 5-7 ATS this season, but the Jaguars have failed to cover in two straight.
- The Over/Under opened as high as 59.5 and has since dropped to 57.5 at most books.
- The Jaguars are just 5-6 to the O/U this season, while the Broncos are 7-5.
South Alabama vs Western Michigan betting trend to know
The Broncos have only hit the game total Under in four of their last 11 games (-3.70 Units / -31% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for South Alabama vs Western Michigan.
South Alabama vs Western Michigan game info
| Location: | Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, AL |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-14-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
South Alabama vs Western Michigan latest injuries
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South Alabama vs Western Michigan weather
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