Will the SMU Mustangs be comfortable in the cold? Will the Penn State Nittany Lions rise to the occasion in front of a raucous home crowd? These intangible thoughts should not dictate any college football picks, though they should be loosely pondered.
My SMU vs. Penn State prop picks will mostly focus on Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar and do-everything tight end Tyler Warren. As they go, Penn State goes, and come kickoff at 12 ET on Saturday, December 21, PSU should go right through SMU.
Hungry for more? Andrew Caley has you covered with his full SMU vs. Penn State predictions.
SMU vs Penn State props for the CFP First Round
Allar anytime TD (+155 at BetMGM)- Warren anytime TD (-200 at BetMGM)
Jennings Over 18.5 rush yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 12-20.
Read full analysis of each pick.
SMU vs Penn State player props
Prop bet #1: Drew Allar anytime touchdown
Drew Allar has run for a touchdown in each of his last three games. That alone creates some confidence in this play. But with backup quarterback Beau Pribula leaving the team to transfer, Allar’s red-zone workload will increase. Skip the angst-riddled conversation about Pribula’s choice and embrace this value.
Pribula had four rushing touchdowns to Allar’s six this season. If half of Pribula’s scores this season were Allar’s, and that is being intentionally conservative, this prop would plummet. For this week’s game plan, that is the logic offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki is working with.
There is strong support for embracing any quarterback on the anytime touchdown market this weekend. When games matter more, coaches often use that extra tool in the run game, particularly near the goal line.
It is simple math: When the QB is the ball carrier, the ball carrier has an additional blocker. But the coaching staff does not want to do that in some chunks of the season for fear of wearing out the most vital piece of his offense.
That fear goes out the window once into a single-elimination tournament. Expect Allar to be among those taking hits at the goal line this weekend, and gladly.
Prop bet #2: Tyler Warren anytime touchdown
Yes, this touchdown comes with some juice, but consider it the more conservative approach to the Allar anytime TD.
All-American tight end Tyler Warren does it all. At USC early in the season, he literally snapped the ball and caught the ensuing touchdown pass on that play.
Before we continue, let’s give some credit to offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki for his thorough understanding of the rules, which allowed him to design that play without incurring an illegal formation or an ineligible man downfield penalty.
The price on Warren this week is justified based on his season alone — 10 touchdowns across eight of his 13 games. But it is not properly adjusting for backup QB Beau Pribula’s absence as he pursues a transfer.
Four of Warren’s 10 touchdowns were rushing scores. When you look up “do-everything” in the dictionary, it is his picture next to the definition. With Pribula and his four rushing scores absent, Warren may take more Wildcat snaps near the end zone.
Between that possibility and his already dominant pass-catching skills, few things are more certain this weekend than Warren finding the end zone.
Prop bet #3: Kevin Jennings Over 18.5 rushing yards
The instinct here was to bet the Under on Kevin Jennings’ rushing yards prop. Penn State defensive end Abdul Carter could sack Jennings enough to ruin an Over attempt all on his own.
But look at how SMU handled trailing 24-7 against Clemson in the ACC championship game two weeks ago. In that second half, the Mustangs threw the ball 27 times compared to running it 14 times. Five of those rushes were by Jennings for 24 yards. He was not sacked once in the second half.
Penn State is better than SMU. Penn State should control this game. And if that is the case, Jennings will scramble often enough when dropping back to clear this prop.
Carter could still cause too much chaos, but if Jennings kept his wits about him against Clemson’s defensive line, his two weeks of studying Carter should have him equipped to do so again.
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