My Penn State vs. Boise State predictions and college football picks focus on Ashton Jeanty and his expected success in the Fiesta Bowl, even if moderate by his standards, against Penn State on December 31.
Penn State vs Boise State prediction and best bet
Moneyline
Penn State -450 at BetMGM
There is some thought to predicting an upset here, Boise State available at +350 on the moneyline at BetMGM. The Broncos do not get enough credit for how closely they played Oregon in Week 2, holding a 20-14 halftime lead and largely undone by giving up both a punt return for a touchdown and a kickoff return for a touchdown, losing 37-34 on the road.
Oregon has improved since then, so a direct comparison cannot be drawn from that Broncos’ loss to the Nittany Lions’ Big Ten title game loss to the Ducks, 45-37. But still, Boise State should be lauded and respected.
Nonetheless, Penn State should simply be too good here. There is an undeniable talent gap between these two rosters. Through a full game, that should create enough of a Nits’ edge to overcome the Broncos’ overall quality. There is a reason Penn State won nine of its 12 triumphs by at least two scores, enjoying an average margin of victory of 19.9 points across 12 wins while losing just twice, each by one score, to arguably the two best teams in the country.
Spread
Boise State +11 (-110 at BetMGM)
While Penn State made it a habit of blowing out teams this year, it actually struggled against the spread, certainly in comparison to James Franklin’s usual. Longtime college football bettors with strong memories know Franklin’s penchant for running up the score late to assure his boosters win their bets against the spread.
Penn State is 7-7 ATS this season, including both the Big Ten title game and the Playoff first round. For the sake of acknowledging what games have full rosters, let’s ignore bowl games from the past three years; The Nittany Lions were a combined 24-11-1 ATS in the regular season from 2021-23.
Most notable in that stretch were four games when Penn State covered explicitly because Franklin pushed the envelope with his reserves in the final minutes, including three times in 2023. He did so just once this year, though he ran up the score beyond the cover in another game.
Those moments featured backup quarterback Beau Pribula, now in the transfer portal and off the Nittany Lions’ roster.
With that in mind, do not expect Penn State to run this up per usual, and do not expect Franklin to feel a need to stomp on Boise State late. If winning, his bigger concern will be simply readying for the Playoff semifinal. Those realities all on their own provide some Boise State value, given Pribula’s past scores factor into the Penn State numbers by some measure.
Without that Frankin emphasis, a Broncos’ backdoor cover will be all that much more possible, as well.
Total
Over 53.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Obviously, a Boise State backdoor cover would help push toward an Over. That focus sits on star running back Ashton Jeanty, but the best bet below will spend plenty of time discussing him.
Instead, look to Penn State’s underrated offense to assure this Over. The Nittany Lions rank No. 9 in offensive EPA, and they effectively matched Oregon score-for-score just three weeks ago.
The Broncos will struggle to stop them, a level of offense they have not faced since Week 2. As long as Jeanty has some moderate success, Penn State should do the heavy lifting to notch this Over.
My best bet
Ashton Jeanty Over 126.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Boise State runs the ball 6.0% more often than the average team would in a given game state, logical with the Heisman runner-up threatening numbers only ever reached by Barry Sanders. If the Broncos are going to spring this upset, it will be because Ashton Jeanty nears his season averages of 192 yards and 7.3 yards per carry.
Penn State fans will balk at this suggestion, but Jeanty could find that success against the Nittany Lions. While Penn State excels in limiting explosive rushes, very much a Jeanty specialty, it also struggles to shut down methodical rushing attacks, ranking No. 37 in defensive rushing success rate entering the bowl games, per cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com.
Sure, No. 37 is in the top 30% of the country, but when facing a rushing demand like Boise State’s, something stronger will be necessary. And if the Broncos can pound their way to four yards per carry — nearly halving Jeanty’s average rush attempt this season — they should be able to stay within range of the Nits on the scoreboard.
If you'd rather the video form of my logic to Boise State +11 or +11.5 tonight.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) December 31, 2024
The crux of it is, Penn State is not a title contender because of its rush defense, and we all know Boise State is capable of exploiting that. https://t.co/MjuHcoOtOn pic.twitter.com/mMzBCoAffN
Oregon has the No. 2 rushing attack in the country, in terms of expected points added (EPA) per rush, and it took 41 carries for 4.5 yards per carry against Penn State in the Big Ten title game. While the Ducks did not regularly break loose, they kept the chains moving.
Jeanty is more than capable of that, especially with three weeks off to get healthy and fresh.
Even if the Nittany Lions take a two-score lead early on, the Broncos will not outright stray from their bread-and-butter. They will, at their most desperate, attempt to scheme up an explosive play from Jeanty. In that regard, even a Penn State lead should not doom this rushing yards prop.
Penn State vs Boise State same-game parlay (SGP)
Ashton Jeanty Over 109.5 rushing yards
Tyler Warren anytime touchdown
Drew Allar 2+ passing touchdowns
BetMGM skews the rushing yardage milestones in its same-game parlay menu, so let’s be a bit conservative and take Jeanty to rush for more than 109.5 yards rather than aggressive at 134.5 yards. Same-game parlays are foolish enough, there is no need to add further risk within them because the sportsbook alters the available numbers.
Including a Tyler Warren anytime touchdown should not take much convincing. He scored 10 times in eight separate games this season, and his need where it matters most only increases with Penn State backup quarterback Beau Pribula leaving the team to pursue a transfer. Pribula ran a change-of-pace package for the Nits, scoring four times on his own this season.
Pribula’s absence also furthers the value in Drew Allar. The game will be more in his hands, and he is facing a secondary ripe for exposing. Boise State’s defense ranks No. 53 in the country in EPA per dropback against, by far the lesser half of its defense.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Penn State vs Boise State odds
Penn State vs Boise State live odds
Penn State vs Boise State opening odds
- Penn State vs. Boise State spread: Boise State +9.5
- Penn State vs. Boise State moneyline: Penn State -375, Boise State +300
- Penn State vs. Boise State Over/Under: 52.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Penn State vs Boise State spread and Over/Under analysis
- When Penn State finished its blowout of SMU, this spread opened with the Nittany Lions favored by just 9.5 points, spending that first-round Saturday night at an even -10.
- By that Sunday morning, it had jumped to -10.5, and Christmas Eve saw a peak of -11.5 before soon returning to -10.5, most books steadying at -11.
- This total opened at 52.5 and held steady until Monday, finally climbing to 53.5.
Penn State vs Boise State betting trend to know
It should be noted here somewhere: Boise State is 3-0 outright all-time in the Fiesta Bowl, upsetting Arizona in 2014, TCU to conclude the 2009 season, and most memorably shocking Oklahoma on New Year’s Day in 2007. The Broncos were +2.5, +,7 and +7 underdogs in those games, respectively. Find more college football betting trends for Penn State vs Boise State.
How to watch Penn State vs Boise State game info
| Location: | State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ |
| Date: | Tuesday, 12-31-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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