Ohio vs Miami (OH) Predictions, Picks, Odds for College Football MAC Championship

No MAC team has won back-to-back championships in over a decade, but the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks have the chance to be the first since Northern Illinois when they take on the Ohio Bobcats at Ford Field at noon ET on ESPN.

But with Tim Albin’s team having the more consistent offensive attack and an underrated defense, I’m expecting the Bobcats to win their first-ever MAC Championship in my Ohio vs. Miami (Ohio) predictions and college football picks for Saturday, December 7.

Ohio vs Miami (OH) prediction and best bet

Who will win Ohio vs Miami (OH)?

Despite MAC legend Frank Solich winning a conference record 115 games between 2005 and 2020, the Bobcats never took home the conference championship. Albin, a Solich disciple, has a chance to change that, and I think he will.

While Miami (Ohio) has the best defense in the MAC, Ohio is the more well-rounded team, thanks to its rushing attack. And there’s potential for a noticeable mismatch when the RedHawks offense is facing a sneakily stingy Bobcats’ defense.

Ultimately, I think this is going to be a very close game, which is why I’m taking the Bobcats +2 (-110) instead of the moneyline (+110), but I do have Ohio winning 23-20.

My best bet
Ohio +2 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
The job Tim Albin has done since taking over for Frank Solich deserves more attention. The Ohio Bobcats became a MAC mainstay under Solich and had just two losing records in 16 seasons.

However, they only won double-digit games once and never won the MAC. Meanwhile, Albin, who coached at Ohio under Solich for his entire tenure, has somehow elevated the program after going 3-9 in his first season in charge.

Since then, the Bobcats are 29-10, and one win away from a third straight double-digit win season. That win could come in the MAC Championship and capture the program's first-ever conference title.

At the very worst, Ohio is built to play the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks close with a run game that’s been among the best in the nation. The Bobcats are 14th in the country in rushing yards per game (210.5) and first in the MAC - they also lead the MAC in total yards per game (394.3).

Thanks to QB Parker Navarro doing his best Nathan Rourke impression as a runner and Northwestern transfer Anthony Tyus III being a breakout star at running back, the Bobcats are 51st in EPA per rush this season.

While the RedHawks’ defense is stout, the lack of support from their offense could be a problem. The RedHawks are 100th in SP+ on offense and putting up just the seventh-most yards per game in the conference (362.3).

This is an offense that leans on its ground attack and running back Keyon Mozee, but ranks just 107th in EPA per rush. And while QB Brett Gabbert is a MAC veteran, he had as many big-time throws this season as turnover-worthy plays (15), per PFF.

Gabbert and Mozee are going to have a tough time against a defense that’s top 70 in EPA per rush and dropback, ranks 45th in SP+, and allows the second-fewest yards per game in the conference (305.8).

While the RedHawks beat the Bobcats 30-20 in the regular season, this game will be played at a neutral site on top of the fact that Ohio has won five straight games since then (covering in all of them) while outscoring opponents 189-54.

Ohio vs Miami (OH) same-game parlay (SGP)

Ohio +2

Parker Navarro anytime touchdown

Keyon Mozee Over 69.5 rushing yards

+300 at BetMGM

Parker Navarro has taken his game to another level since the loss to Miami (Ohio) on October 19. In the five games since then, he’s run for nine touchdowns. He has the sixth-most rushing TDs in the country among QBs (13), the sixth-most 10-plus-yard runs (34), and the seventh-most rushing yards after contact (517).

Navarro’s legs will be the key for Ohio, so expect him to have several opportunities to find the end zone. On the other side, Miami (Ohio) turned its season around once Keyon Mozee took on a bigger role.

He’s rushed for 70-plus yards in seven straight games - that includes going for 111 against the Bobcats. Mozee leads the MAC in rushing yards (1,045) and is top 40 in the country in rushing yards after contact (633).

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Ohio vs Miami (OH) odds

Ohio vs Miami (OH) live odds

Ohio vs Miami (OH) opening odds

• Ohio vs. Miami (OH) spread: Miami (OH) -2.5 (-115)
• Ohio vs. Miami (OH) moneyline: Ohio (+120), Miami (OH) (-145)
• Ohio vs. Miami (OH) Over/Under: 44.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Ohio vs Miami (OH) spread and Over/Under analysis

• Miami (Ohio) opened between a 1.5 and 2-point favorite, with most sportsbooks offering the RedHawks at -2 or -2.5.
• While the RedHawks are just 6-6 ATS this season, they’re 5-2 since October 12, but the Bobcats are 8-4 ATS and have covered in five straight.
• The Over/Under opened as high as 45.5 and has dropped down to between 43.5 and 44.5 at most books.
• Miami (Ohio) is 5-6-1, betting the Over this season, and Ohio is 6-6.

Ohio vs Miami (OH) betting trend to know

Ohio has covered the Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Ohio vs Miami (OH).

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