There’s a lot on the line in the MAC Championship at Ford Field with Miami (Ohio) playing for the chance to be the conference’s first back-to-back champ in over a decade and Ohio hoping to win its first MAC title in program history.
With both teams playing a similar brand of smash mouth football that leans on their ground game, I’m expecting both teams’ running backs to stand out in my Ohio vs. Miami (Ohio) player props and college football picks for Saturday, December 7.
Ohio vs Miami (OH) props for the MAC Championship
Anthony Tyus III anytime TD scorer (-120 at BetMGM)
Keyon Mozee Over 79.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)- Parker Navarro Over 140.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 12-7.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Ohio vs Miami (OH) college football player props
Prop bet #1: Anthony Tyus III anytime TD scorer
It’s not hard to tell that Anthony Tyus III began his career in the Power 4. He’s built like an NFL running back, and his transfer from Northwestern to Ohio has paid off with him sitting second in the MAC in rushing yards this season (960).
Given the anytime TD odds for Parker Navarro (-154) and Keyon Mozee (-135), Tyus is the best value if you’re looking to back a player to find the end zone in the MAC Championship.
The 6-foot-1, 226-pound bruiser has found the end zone nine times this season, including in four of his last five games. In a 30-20 loss to the RedHawks earlier this season, Tyus managed to score against Miami (Ohio)’s vaunted defense, and he should again in Detroit.
Not only does he have a nose for the end zone, but he’s a proven big-play threat that can create on his own. Tyus’ 651 rushing yards after contact were the 14th-most among Group of 5 running backs this season, and he forced the seventh-most missed tackles (59), per PFF.
It’s not as if he’s some plodding oversized back either, he’s capable of producing chunk plays. Tyus had 29 runs of 10-plus yards this season.
For as good as Miami (Ohio)’s defense is, it did allow 16 rushing TDs this season.
Prop bet #2: Keyon Mozee Over 79.5 rushing yards
Another former Power 4 running back has been the engine for his offense this season with Mozee breaking out in his fourth season with the program after transferring from Kansas State.
Prior to Mozee becoming the lead back, the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks were struggling, but since their fourth game of the season when he took on a larger role, Miami (Ohio)’s gone 8-1. So you best believe Chuck Martin’s team will continue to rely on their mighty mouse at running back.
In the nine games Mozee has had nine-plus carries in, he’s rushed for 91 or more yards eight times. That includes going for 111 against Ohio on October 19.
He’s now gone Over 79.5 rushing yards in seven straight games, and since he took over the lead role in that fourth game against UMass, he’s averaged 15.5 carries per game for 109.4 rushing yards.
The MAC’s leading rusher with 1,045 yards, no team in the conference has been able to slow down Mozee. He’s one of just 11 Group of 5 running backs to top 1,000 rushing yards this season and he’s ninth in the G5 with 15 runs of 15-plus yards.
The RedHawks wouldn’t have made it this far without Mozee, so expect Miami (Ohio) to continue to lean on him to carry the offensive load.
Prop bet #3: Parker Navarro Over 140.5 passing yards
This line is set surprisingly low. Obviously, Navarro struggled immensely in the loss to Miami (Ohio) in October, but that was nearly two months ago and was an outdoor road game.
This will be a neutral site game in the Detroit Lions’ indoor stadium, on top of the fact that Navarro has been far better in the second half of the season than he was in the first half.
While he only threw for 88 yards the first time around against the RedHawks, he’s gone for Over 140.5 passing yards in all five games since. In fact, he’s topped this number in every game of the season, except for the loss to Miami (Ohio).
Even against Syracuse, Navarro managed to throw for 181 yards. That means he’s hit 141-plus yards in 90.9% of his games, yet these odds imply just a 53.49% probability he’ll do it against Miami (Ohio).
That makes this a great value play, especially when considering that the RedHawks will likely be focused on stopping the Bobcats’ explosive run game.
Navarro has also been dealing in recent weeks. He’s made seven big-time throws in his last five games with just four turnover-worthy plays.
With Navarro playing his best football of the season, don’t expect a repeat performance of what happened earlier in the year against Miami (Ohio).
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