The No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish look to stay in the thick of the College Football Playoff hunt as they head west to face the rival USC Trojans in the regular season finale.
I take a look at the Notre Dame vs. USC player prop market with my eyes on Woody Marks, Riley Leonard, and Trojans leading receiver Makai Lemon.
Read on for my college football picks for Saturday, November 30. Check out our Notre Dame vs. USC predictions afterward!
Notre Dame vs USC props for Week 14
Marks Over 77.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Leonard Over 52.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)- Lemon Over 40.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 11-30.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Notre Dame vs USC college football player props
Prop bet #1: Woody Marks Over 77.5 rushing yards
There haven’t been many constants for the USC Trojans offensively this season. Lincoln Riley’s team has changed quarterbacks, has yet to rely on a go-to wide receiver while rotating multiple players, and has seen the fan base turn on Riley for his play-calling tendencies.
One thing the Trojans have been able to rely on is the steady production of running back Woody Marks. The Mississippi State transfer has been a true workhorse, handling 192 carries while rushing for 1,110 yards and nine touchdowns. He also leads the team in receptions (47) and has added 321 receiving yards.
Marks’ rushing yardage prop is set at 77.5 yards at BetMGM Sportsbook. He’s gone Over this number in eight of his last 10 games, and one of the misses came by just two yards (76) a week ago.
Woody should continue receiving a huge workload in a home game against the rival Notre Dame Fighting Irish. They have a great defense, and there’s a reason Marks’ yardage prop has been decreased, but I’m buying Over at a low number.
The Irish have been far tougher against the pass (first nationally in EPA per pass and passing success rate) than the rush (45th in EPA per rush and 64th in rushing success rate). They surprisingly check in at just 90th in stuff rate, and close observers of the team will point out there have been some lingering injuries to key defensive tackles throughout the year.
USC’s offensive line has issues in pass protection, but it's been pretty good paving running lanes. The Trojans rank 11th in line yards and 33rd in stuff rate, so it’d be surprising if Marks suddenly gets shut down repeatedly in the last game of the year.
Woody has experienced great success this season despite facing a tough schedule that has included teams like Penn State (111 rushing yards) and Michigan (100 rushing yards). Notre Dame is a tough challenge, but not tough enough to warrant this discounted line.
Prop bet #2: Riley Leonard Over 52.5 rushing yards
Duke transfer Riley Leonard has been a one-man show at times for Marcus Freeman’s Irish. The dual-threat quarterback has racked up 671 rushing yards and 13 scores on the ground, repeatedly earning the trust of offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock and being rewarded with as much work as he can handle.
He’s averaging 61 rushing yards per game, so the fact his rushing yardage total sits at 52.5 at BetMGM Sportsbook is attention-grabbing.
Leonard has rushed for at least 50 yards seven times this season. He figures to have a productive day against a mediocre USC defense ranked 74th in EPA per rush, 56th in rushing success rate, and 87th in rushing explosiveness.
The Trojans don’t create much push up front and figure to be at a disadvantage in the trenches when the Irish have the ball.
USC has a good defensive coordinator in D’Anton Lynn, but the Trojans don’t have the bodies to compete with effective offenses. Dealing with the losses of Bear Alexander, Anthony Lucas, and Eric Gentry — arguably the three most talented defensive pieces on the roster — has been a challenge.
Give me Leonard to go Over his rushing yardage prop on Saturday.
Prop bet #3: Makai Lemon Over 40.5 receiving yards
I mentioned earlier there haven’t been many constants with the USC offense. Another expectation has been the play of wide receiver Makai Lemon, who has emerged as the top option in the passing attack over the last month and a half.
The former five-star recruit has delivered on his promise, leading the team in receiving yards with 532. That’s good for an average of 53.2 yards per game, making his receiving yardage prop of 40.5 a discount. I’m buying the Over.
Notre Dame has terrific defensive metrics, but a quick look at the schedule will paint a clearer picture.
What difficult test has this defense seen? A Navy team with an injured quarterback? Florida State, Georgia Tech with backup quarterbacks? A Virginia team that can’t reach 20 points in any game? Miami (OH), Purdue, or Stanford? Yikes.
USC likes to throw the ball (11th in pass rate) and does so well (20th in passing success rate). The Trojans have been in a ton of close games, and Week 14 doesn’t figure to be an exception, meaning they’re likely playing slightly from behind for much of the contest, where players like Lemon will be counted on to produce.
Lemon has exceeded 40.5 receiving yards in five of his last six games while averaging 75 yards per game in that span. This number is a big discount, especially against a defense without its best cornerback (Benjamin Morrison).
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