Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan Player Props & Best Bets: Buckley Breaks Free

Prop bet #1: Jalen Buckley Over 51.5 rushing yards

-115 at Caesars

Western Michigan Broncos sophomore running back Jalen Buckley scampered for 1,003 rushing yards during his freshman season, but an opening-night injury caused him to miss nearly four games.

Buckley has seemingly returned to form as he is averaging 6.1 yards per carry. Since the opening night injury, Buckley has become part of a timeshare in the Broncos backfield, but consistently gets double-digit attempts as WMU’s clear No. 1, so I expect the young fella from Aurora, IL to put in some work.

Buckley is up against a Northern Illinois Huskies defense allowing 3.3 yards per attempt and one lone TD this season. They’ve eaten running backs for lunch during their 2024 campaign, but Buckley is just as tough.

This is a big one for the Broncos, and they’ll want to lean on their star RB. Buckley has cleared 52 rushing yards in four of his five games, and if he gets 10-15 carries, he’ll clear his rushing yards prop at home this Wednesday.

Prop bet #2: Blake Bosma Under 45.5 receiving yards

-119 at Caesars

Western Michigan tight end Blake Bosma tops the Broncos in receiving yards, but he will have a difficult time against the top passing defense in the MAC.

NIU allows the fewest passing yards in the conference (144 per game). The Huskies lead the MAC in six defensive categories, and its 25% third-down conversion rate allowed says the NIU stop unit means business.

Bosma is Broncos QB Hayden Wolff’s go-to guy. The junior TE from Holland, MI leads WMU in receptions (30) and receiving yards (327). Bosma has found the end zone more times than any other Broncos receiver (6), with 11 yards per reception.

As good as that mark is, the NIU defense is better. WMU doesn’t protect Wolff very well, and NIU will come after the Broncos signal-caller hard with a defense that’s recorded a conference-best 14 sacks.

Bosma has cleared 45.5 receiving yards in four of his eight tilts, but he’ll have a tough time doing so against NIU. The Huskies stop unit isn’t going to let Bosma beat them, and they’ll be aggressive with the junior TE right from the line of scrimmage.

Wolff is a decent thrower, but he’ll have difficulties getting the ball to his top pass catcher, making it difficult for Bosma to catch 46 yards worth of passes. 

Prop bet #3: Jaden Nixon Under 95.5 rushing yards

-114 at FanDuel

WMU RB Jaden Nixon is second in the MAC in rushing yards, but scampering for 96 yards against this NIU defense is a big ask.

When Buckley went down on opening night, the junior RB from Irving, TX, became the de facto RB1. The speedy back has run the football well this season, with 752 rushing yards and a team-high 10 trips to the house.

Nixon has cleared 80+ rushing yards in five of his eight games, including five 100+ yard outings across his last six. The kid is flying high, but the Huskies’ rushing defense is one of the best nationally and hasn’t surrendered 80 rushing yards in a single game to anyone this season.

The NIU defense has held offenses to fewer than 150 rushing yards in 15 of its past 21 games. It leads the MAC in rushing yards per attempt, and Nixon won’t enjoy the same rushing lanes as he has this season. NIU is 40th nationally in tackles for a loss, and the Broncos RB might also lose some rushing attempts to Buckley. I’m playing the Under on his rushing yards prop.