Arguably the greatest rivalry in all of sports is on tap, as Ohio State hosts Michigan at Ohio Stadium in hopes of beating the Wolverines for the first time since 2019.
With the Buckeyes gearing up for the College Football Playoff and the Wolverines having a down year, I’m expecting Ryan Day’s top playmakers to shine in my Michigan vs. Ohio State player props and college football picks for Saturday, November 30.
Michigan vs Ohio State props for Week 14
Jeremiah Smith o77.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)- Emeka Egbuka anytime TD (-105 at BetMGM)
Kalel Mullings u45.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 11-30.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Michigan vs Ohio State college football player props
Prop bet #1: Jeremiah Smith Over 77.5 receiving yards
It may be Jeremiah Smith’s first time playing in 'The Game', but the freshman star might already be the best player taking the field on Saturday. Despite both teams being loaded with future NFL players, the 19-year-old Smith is set to stand out above the rest.
The former five-star recruit has looked as good as former Ohio State Buckeyes' greats like Marvin Harrison Jr. and Chris Olave, and no defense has been able to consistently contain him. Smith sits Top-25 in the country in receiving yards (899) and has gone for 79+ in seven of 11 games.
Michigan Wolverines All-American cornerback Will Johnson is not expected to suit up, which will be a huge factor in how dominant Smith will be on Saturday. The potential Top 10 pick hasn’t played since October 5 against Washington, and Michigan is 2-3 in the five games since.
Smith ranks eighth in the nation in yards per route run (3.33) and QBs have the ninth-highest NFL passer rating in college football when targeting him (143.0), per PFF.
Prop bet #2: Emeka Egbuka anytime touchdown
Ohio State has been a wide receiver factory for the last half-decade, and while Smith is the star pass catcher this season, Emeka Egbuka could end up a first-round pick in April.
Finding an anytime touchdown scorer to back for the Buckeyes against Michigan is tough with Smith (-164), Quinshon Judkins (-164), and TreVeyon Henderson (-120) all offering minimal value with their odds. And none of them have found the end zone on a consistent basis over the last month and a half.
That’s why these -105 odds for Egbuka to score are the best play on the board. He’s tied for second in TDs for Ohio State this season with nine, and he’s scored at least once in seven of his last nine games, including three of his last four.
While Egbuka isn’t putting up jaw-dropping receiving numbers overall (692 yards on 56 receptions), Ryan Day and Chip Kelly do a great job scheming him up to get into the end zone.
It also helps his case that he’s Top-40 in the country in yards per route run (2.60), YAC (347), and contested catches. His well-rounded skill set allows him to win 50/50 balls in the red zone or create after the catch to score.
With Michigan likely to be keyed in on Smith, it will give Egbuka an easier matchup to put six on the board against a defense that’s allowed the seventh-most passing TDs in the Big Ten (17).
Prop bet #3: Kalel Mullings Under 45.5 rushing yards
It could be a long afternoon for Michigan’s offense. It’s been a massive disappointment this season and the key reason the Wolverines have struggled to find consistency from week to week.
While Kalel Mullings has been one of the few bright spots for the Michigan offense, Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles is most likely to be focused on stopping the thumping running back.
The Buckeyes defense has been the best in the country this season and ranks No. 1 by SP+. It’s going to pose a massive challenge for a Michigan offense that’s just 38th in EPA per rush this season.
It also helps that Ohio State won’t have to worry much about the Michigan passing game. The Wolverines are abysmal when throwing, sitting 83rd in EPA per dropback and averaging the second-fewest passing yards per game in the country (140.1).
Having no passing threat should make it that much harder for Mullings to rush for 46-plus yards, a feat he’s only accomplished once in his last four games. Ohio State also boasts an elite front, allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game in the country (90.0) and ranks third in EPA per rush on defense.
My Michigan vs. Ohio State predictions think the Wolverines will be playing from behind in the game as 19.5-point underdogs, so fade Mullings' O/U on Saturday.
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