AT&T Stadium awaits the No. 16 Iowa State Cyclones and No. 12 Arizona State Sun Devils, who will battle for the Big 12 Championship and a College Football Playoff bid on Saturday at noon Eastern.
We’re headed over to the Iowa State vs. Arizona State player prop market to find the three best bets available for a contest that should see a boost in offensive production in this environment at Jerry World.
Check out our Iowa State vs. Arizona State predictions for December 7 when you're done!
Iowa State vs Arizona State props for the Big 12 Championship
Becht Over 235.5 pass yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Skattebo Over 122.5 rush yards (-115 at BetMGM)- Higgins Over 72.5 rec yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 12-6.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Iowa State vs Arizona State college football player props
Prop bet #1: Rocco Becht Over 235.5 passing yards
The Arizona State Sun Devils have been stout defensively, ranking 33rd in EPA per play while allowing 21.5 ppg. They've been a bit of a pass funnel, shutting down the ground game (23rd in EPA per rush, 3.8 yards per attempt allowed) while being beatable through the air (59th in EPA per pass, 103rd in passing success rate).
This is a somewhat simple matchup as the Iowa State Cyclones have struggled to run the ball but have a dangerous passing attack that can take the reigns in a dome game.
It’s not difficult to see why the ground game has faltered. The offensive line has been entirely underwhelming, ranking 102nd in line yards, 104th in stuff rate, and 118th in PFF’s run-blocking grade.
Quarterback Rocco Becht, a second-year starter, has thrown for 3,021 yards and 20 touchdowns this season and has two 1,000-yard receivers to throw the ball to — Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel.
With a strength like that to lean on, why not do so early and often against an Arizona State team that has been more forgiving in that area?
Becht should have all day to throw against a Sun Devils team that checks in with the third-worst pass-rush grade (56.1) in the country, per PFF.
That’s a troubling situation when the Cyclones have two receivers as talented as Higgins and Noel — you don’t want to be stuck in coverage for too long against those studs without putting pressure on the QB.
Prop bet #2: Cameron Skattebo Over 122.5 rushing yards
One of the most dominant forces in college football this season is Arizona State running back Cam Skattebo. He runs with such authority and has such great contact balance defenders are routinely sent sprawling when attempting to bring him down.
The former Sacramento State transfer has been an integral part of the Sun Devils’ breakout season in Year 2 of the Kenny Dillingham era, handling 282 touches for 1,866 scrimmage yards and 19 TDs.
He’ll be needed now more than ever with star receiver Jordyn Tyson out for the foreseeable future after getting injured in the regular season finale.
Tyson led the team with 75 receptions for 1,101 receiving yards and 10 TDs. Skattebo is next in line with 35 receptions for 468 yards, and no other Sun Devil has even eclipsed 200 receiving yards.
Skattebo will see all the work he can handle in response, and this isn’t a terrible matchup. Iowa State ranks 94th in EPA per rush, 71st in rushing success rate, and 112th in rushing explosiveness.
The Cyclones have had cluster injuries at linebacker, making a usually tough defense suddenly susceptible to chunk yardage. They check in at 118th in PFF’s rush defense grade and 121st in tackling — laughable numbers if one hopes to stop Skattebo.
BetMGM Sportsbook has listed the talented tailback’s rushing yardage prop at 122.5. He’s gone Over that total in five of his last seven games and is averaging 127 yards per game this season, so I’m on the Over.
Prop bet #3: Jayden Higgins Over 72.5 receiving yards
Jayden Higgins has been a reliable target for Iowa State this season. The former Eastern Kentucky transfer has at least 50 receiving yards in every game and has found the end zone in nine of 12 appearances.
When looking at the player prop market and handicapping which Iowa State receiver between Higgins and Noel is more likely to exceed their receiving yardage prop, it’s important to pick through the weeds.
Higgins has a better matchup on paper as Arizona State’s two outside corners, Keith Abney and Javan Robinson, have allowed the highest yardage totals in coverage. Abney has a 62.1 coverage grade (per PFF) and allows 12.0 yards per reception and Robinson has a 63.7 coverage grade while allowing 13.4 yards per reception.
Both are markedly worse than Shamari Simmons, who has a 69.1 coverage grade while allowing 8.6 yards per reception and will likely match up with Noel in the slot. This leads me to the conclusion Higgins will have a more successful day at the office or at least has a more bankable chance of doing so.
Higgins’ receiving yardage prop is set at 72.5 over at BetMGM Sportsbook. He’s averaging 89 yards per game and is facing a Sun Devils team better against the run than the pass and doesn’t rush the passer.
With this game taking place at AT&T Stadium, the offenses won’t have any weather elements to worry about, and stars like Higgins will be allowed to shine brightest.
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