Iowa State and Arizona State will square off in the Big 12 Championship game, with both teams knowing a win is required to reach the College Football Playoff.
With two offenses featuring plenty of players who can take it to the house at any moment, I’m here to break down the two best betting values for Iowa State vs. Arizona State anytime touchdown picks on Saturday, December 7.
Iowa State anytime touchdown pick
Rocco Becht anytime touchdown
+210 at BetMGM
While he’s thrown for over 3,000 yards on the season, Rocco Becht can make plays with his legs when he needs to. And he’s done so of late to the tune of three straight games with a rushing touchdown. That’s why my Iowa State vs. Arizona State predictions love getting him at over +200 to cross the goal line at BetMGM, the only book to have him priced that high.
Becht has rushed for a touchdown in six of his games this season, and the latter half of the campaign has seen him utilizing that rushing ability more often. He had only 23 runs in his first six games, after accounting for sacks, but that sack-adjusted total has gone up to 47 since.
And while that number is skewed by the 20 runs he had against UCF, he’s still averaging 6.7 rushing attempts across the line of scrimmage in his last three outings. He’s had only two scrambles in each of those games, and he’s facing an Arizona State Sun Devils defense ranked 118th in sack rate and dead-last in the conference in tackles for loss per game.
The Sun Devils have been prone to mobile quarterbacks hurting them in the red zone. Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby scored on runs of one yard and 14 yards in a win over Arizona State earlier this season, and Jalon Daniels punched one in on just six rushing attempts as he took one 22 yards for a score.
Becht has runs of 11+ yards in each of his last four games, with six explosive runs in that span. With his rushing ability against a defense susceptible to scrambles, this price is far too good to pass up.
Arizona State anytime touchdown pick
Cameron Skattebo 2+ touchdowns
+180 at BetMGM
While only playing in 11 games, Arizona State running back Cam Skattebo has found the end zone 19 times this season, with 17 of those scores coming via the ground. And after having just two multi-score games in his team’s first five contests, he’s hit paydirt multiple times in five of his last six outings. It’s a big reason the Sun Devils rank 16th in EPA/rush this year.
Only Kansas State has been the outlier during this stretch. The Big 12’s top run defense held him to a season-low 2.9 yards per carry in a game that saw him coming off an injury. The next game, he compiled 159 total yards and three touchdowns on 31 touches against a BYU defense that allowed a total of 11 rushing touchdowns in its other eight conference outings.
And while the Iowa State Cyclones have given up just 12 rushing touchdowns in nine Big 12 games, their defense ranks second-worst in conference play allowing 5.47 yards per carry. They’ve also been hurt badly by teams with potent rushing attacks, ranking 71st in EPA/rush and 85th in success rate.
When Kansas defeated them by nine last month, the Jayhawks got 116 yards and two touchdowns from running back Devin Neal on just 18 carries. And UCF back RJ Harvey ran 25 times for 196 yards and two touchdowns, not to mention the 154 rushing yards and two scores added by quarterback Jacurri Brown.
Skattebo is priced -300 or more to score once, but BetMGM is offering a line of +180 for multiple scores that is currently an outlier compared to +145 or less at other books. With receiver Jordyn Tyson out for the season, my college football picks expect Skattebo to get at least 25 touches, and he’ll turn those into at least two touchdowns.
Not intended for use in MA.
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