College basketball fans will be treated to a clash of Top 10 offenses on Saturday when Purdue travels to Birmingham to take on Auburn.
The Boilermakers have lost both of their true road games this season, and while this is technically a neutral-court game, it’ll feel like another road tilt. The Tigers will have Johni Broome available after his shoulder injury on Tuesday, but they have plenty of weapons even if he’s not at full fitness.
I discuss why the Tiger offense will have plenty of bite with or without their star big man in my Purdue vs. Auburn predictions and college basketball picks for Saturday, December 21.
Purdue vs Auburn prediction
My best bet
Auburn team total Over 78.5 (-125 at bet365)
My analysis
Whether or not Johni Broome starts, the Auburn Tigers should find plenty of opportunities to score at the offensive end of the floor. And while Broome is key cog in an offense that leads the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, there are plenty of playmakers who can punish a leaky Purdue Boilermakers defense.
Look no further than Purdue’s loss last week to Texas A&M. The Aggies rank 243rd in 3-point accuracy and 275th in eFG% on the season. But against Purdue, they notched their third-best eFG% mark of the year. This was in large part due to a 48.3% offensive rebound rate, as well as hitting better than 40% from downtown for just the second time all year.
If Broome is able to go, then the Boilermakers must deal with a player whose 15.2% offensive rebound rate leads an Auburn front line that ranks 39th nationally in that metric. He’s also a key reason the Tigers are Top 60 in defensive rebound rate. The Boilermakers are ranked 196th in defensive rebound rate, and giving Auburn extra attempts is something they cannot afford.
But Purdue’s defensive issues go beyond the glass and defending against the 3-pointer. Matt Painter’s team is struggling to stay in front of guards on the perimeter, which could be a big problem for whoever matches up with Chad Baker-Mazara. The wing is not only hitting from outside at a 39% clip, but his ability to put the ball on the floor has him getting to the line at a solid rate while shooting 67.5% from inside the arc.
The Tigers do a terrific job of spacing at the offensive end with four players around the perimeter, which will exacerbate the problems Purdue is having staying in front of players when they put the ball on the floor. And while Broome’s passing would be missed were he not at 100% or playing reduced minutes, Chaney Johnson’s shooting the ball exceptionally well and posted a career-high 26 points in relief against Georgia State.
Auburn has scored 79 or more points in all but two contests this season, and have yet to score fewer than 74 in a game. They’ve done this without forcing a high rate of turnovers — but that could change on Saturday against a Purdue team ranked 215th in turnover rate.
Auburn’s athleticism and length on the perimeter should create some chaos and lead to easy baskets at the other end. Look for the Tigers to ride a very partisan crowd and score 80+ yet again.
Purdue vs Auburn same-game parlay
Auburn team total Over 78.5
Braden Smith Under 6.5 assists
Denver Jones made 3-pointers
Braden Smith has been stellar this season, with the Purdue point guard posting an assist rate of 45.9%. His 8.5 assists are fourth-most per game nationally, but Auburn’s physical defense ranks first nationally in assists allowed per possession and second in assists per FG made. Smith had only six dimes against the Aggies, and he’ll fail to top that mark for the fourth time in six games.
Purdue’s issues defending on the perimeter will be highly beneficial to Denver Jones. The Auburn guard has been on fire, making 12 of his 20 attempts from outside the arc in the last three contests. He’ll make it four straight games with at least a trio of treys.
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Purdue vs Auburn odds
Purdue vs Auburn live odds
Purdue vs Auburn opening odds
- Spread: Purdue +7.5 | Auburn -7.5
- Moneyline: Purdue +335 | Auburn -422
- Over/Under: Over 150 | Under 150
Odds courtesy of bet365
Purdue vs Auburn betting trend to know
Auburn has hit the team total Over in 23 of their last 36 games (+7.89 Units / 19% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Purdue vs. Auburn.
How to watch Purdue vs Auburn
| Location: | Legacy Arena at BJCC, Birmingham, AL |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-21-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Purdue vs Auburn key injuries
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