NC State vs Purdue Props and Best Bets for Final Four Showdown

Prop bet #1: D.J. dropping dimes

One of the best things about the tournament is the mix of matchups you get on the floor. And in the first of the two semifinal showdowns, we get a contrasting clash inside the paint.

In one corner, reigning Player of the Year and 7-foot-4 dynamo Zach Edey. In the other, the 6-foot-9, 275-pound “Dancing Bear,” D.J. Burns.

Burns has captivated the country with his play during the Wolfpacks’ wild run, using his strength, quickness, and soft touch to pump out more than 18 points over 28 minutes per game in the NCAA. Burns has battled some elite big men this season, going toe-to-toe with the likes of Armando Bacot, Kyle Filipowski, and P.J. Hall in ACC play while also facing Tennessee’s talented center Jonas Aidoo in non-conference competition. 

Edey, however, is his toughest test yet. Not only is the Purdue Boliermakers star center a tough tower to shoot over but he’s no featherweight either and can push back on the bowling ball that is Burns' backdown. While I’m not sold on Burns putting up a ton of points versus Purdue, I do believe his passing can help propel NC State’s offense. 

On the season, Burns averaged just short of three assists an outing. But in matchups with elite centers, like those players listed above, D.J. has dished out four or more dimes in five of the seven contests. He also had four helpers in the win over Oakland and seven assists against Marquette in the Sweet 16.

Player projections call for 3.5 assists over 28 minutes of work from Burns in the Final Four, which is what we’ve seen from him in the tournament so far. That said, North Carolina State is getting its biggest break in play since before that magic ACC tournament run, which means Burns will have plenty of gas in the tank and his minutes could spike on Friday night.

With how I see this matchup in the middle shaking out, Burns’ propensity for passing against bigger checks, and the Boilermakers giving up a lot of assists (287th) with an assist-to-FGM rate of 54.9%, I like the most interesting man of March Madness to drop three or more dimes.

D.J. Burns prop: Over 2.5 assists (-190 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Zach attacks the glass

You know you’re an elite rebounder when the boys are taking live flyers on your 20+ rebound alternate props. 

Edey is among the best at cleaning the glass, averaging 12 rebounds on the season and hauling down more than 16 per tournament game heading into the Final Four. That has his rebounding prop for Friday set at 13.5 boards, and with this being one of the most heavily-bet prop markets, the price on the Over is skyrocketing.

The 7-foot-4 Edey has a massive size advantage over the NC State frontcourt, which tops out at 6-foot-10 forwards Mohamed Diarra and Ben Middlebrooks. The Wolfpack have rebounded very well in the tournament so far - beyond their average work on the glass in the regular season. But now they fight the No. 1 rebound rate in the country for those misses.

Edey’s rebound prop pricing sits as high as Over 13.5 (-174) at sharper books and the majority of the market is at least taxing this prop total in the -140 to -155 range. Player projections forecast 15.4 rebounds over 38 minutes for Edey.

Zach Edey prop: Over 13.5 rebounds (-155 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Loyer up

With Edey drawing all the attention, we forget just how good Purdue’s perimeter players are. The Boilermakers are the second-best 3-point shooting squad in the country, knocking down 40.6% of looks from long range.

Purdue doesn’t fire up a lot of triples, averaging just over 20 per game, and has relied on the outside shot even less during the NCAA Tournament. But NC State’s defense is very good at clogging up the interior and defending the post-up and will throw a lot of bodies at Edey inside. 

That puts an emphasis on the Boilermakers’ shooters to make the Wolfpack pay for packing the paint. Kevin Keatts’s crew has protected the perimeter during its postseason run, allowing only 34% success from deep over the last eight games. 

However, if we look at the playsets in which NC State gets burned, we see it rank poorly in points allowed to “off the dribble” and “catch and shoot” 3-point schemes. The Boilermakers, conversely, sit 40th and 82nd in points per play in the offensive flip of those measurements.

That brings us to guard Fletcher Loyer, who is the best 3-point shooter in Purdue’s regular rotation. He’s connecting on 46% of triples for the NCAA tournament, making 6 of 13 from beyond the arc. 

Loyer has been much more active from outside as the tournament got tighter, shooting nine of those 3-point shots over the past two games. Final Four player projections call for 1.8 makes from deep against NC State, which has us shopping the 3-ball props.

I expect his minutes to peak in an important game and the ceiling is high for his attempts, given how much he shot from distance the past two games. He’s hit two or more 3-pointers in five of his last nine games and his outside touch can help the clock strike midnight on Cinderella. 

Fletcher Loyer prop: Over 1.5 made 3s (+100 at DraftKings)