The 2024 Vegas Showdown tips off on Tuesday night with a clash between the No. 1-ranked Kansas Jayhawks and the No. 11-ranked Duke Blue Devils at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
The Blue Devils have been the best Under team in the country going back to last season, and my Kansas vs. Duke predictions are betting on that trend to continue. Here are my free college basketball picks for this clash between blue bloods on November 26, with tip-off at 9 p.m. ET.
Kansas vs Duke prediction
My best bet
Under 149 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Duke Blue Devils have been inconsistent on offense as they build chemistry with a young core, but their elite length and athleticism have allowed them to play lockdown defense. They're first in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and are fresh off a road win against Arizona, where they held the Wildcats to 55 points on 40% shooting and forced 15 turnovers.
The Kansas Jayhawks are 5-0, but their offense has flaws that Duke will magnify. The Jayhawks are coming off a game where they went just 6-19 (32%) from 3-point range against UNC Wilmington, and they shot 29% from deep against Michigan State and North Carolina.
Despite having All-American center Hunter Dickinson, they're just 296th in the country in offensive rebounding rate. That will make it tough for them to put up points against a Duke team that's 20th in defensive rebounding rate and holds opponents to just 25.8% from the arc.
That said, the Jayhawks are also defending at a high level. They're 14th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and limit foes to an effective field goal percentage of 44.2%. They've shut down four of their five opponents, and while they allowed 89 points to a fast-paced UNC squad, they limited the Tar Heels to 43% from the floor and a 30% from deep.
The Blue Devils are 220th in adjusted tempo, while the Jayhawks should see regression in their pace since they've been playing significantly faster possessions than the last few years with the same lead guard. With the Under 15-4-1 in Duke's last 20 games; bet it again tonight.
Kansas vs Duke same-game parlay
Under 149
Hunter Dickinson Over 17.5 points
Kansas +3
Another reason I like the Under is because I expect the Jayhawks to set up in the half-court and run their offense through Dickinson in the post.
One of the Blue Devils' biggest weaknesses has been defending post-up plays, where they rank 266th in the country per ShotQualityBets. Dickinson is averaging 17.8 ppg in 28 mpg and he typically gets more playing time and a higher usage rate against ranked foes.
If Dickinson goes Over his points total, there's also a good chance Kansas covers. The Blue Devils have the more athletic squad, but the Jayhawks are more experienced and physical and are the No. 1 team in the country for good reason.
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Kansas vs Duke odds
Kansas vs Duke live odds
Kansas vs Duke opening odds
- Spread: Kansas +2.5 | Duke -2.5
- Moneyline: Kansas +125 | Duke -150
- Over/Under: Over 148.5 | Under 148.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Kansas vs Duke betting trend to know
Since the start of the 2022-23 season, Duke is an incredible 16-2 to the Under at neutral sites while going 12-5 to the Under against ranked opponents. Find more college basketball betting trends for Kansas vs. Duke.
How to watch Kansas vs Duke
| Location: | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Tuesday, 11-26-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Kansas vs Duke key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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