Duke vs Virginia Tech ACC Final Picks and Predictions: Hokies Won't Go Away Easily

A lot of college basketball fans were hoping for a rematch between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the Duke Blue Devils, but the Virginia Tech Hokies had other plans. They stomped North Carolina in the semifinal of the ACC Tournament, and they’ll now look to beat Duke to become an unlikely champion in this prestigious conference. 

Will the Hokies find a way to steal this one from the Blue Devils? Keep reading our Virginia Tech vs. Duke Blue Devils college basketball picks and predictions to find out whether or not Mike Krzyzewski will take home a title in his final conference tournament as his team’s head coach. 

Duke vs Virginia Tech odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Duke opened as a 5.5-point favorite in this championship game, but the line is now -6 across the board. The total, which opened at 136, is now up to 136.5 or 137 at every sportsbooks as of Saturday morning. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Duke vs Virginia Tech predictions

• Prediction: Virginia Tech +6 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 136 (-110)
• Best bet: Virginia Tech +6 (-110)

Predictions made on 3/12/2022 at 9:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Duke vs Virginia Tech game info

• Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
• Date: Saturday, March 12, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Duke vs Virginia Tech betting preview

Injuries

Duke: No injuries to report. 
Virginia Tech: No injuries to report. 

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Duke is 0-5 ATS in its last five games against teams with winning percentages of 60.0% or higher. Find more NCAA betting trends for Duke vs. Virginia Tech.

Duke vs Virginia Tech picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Virginia Tech and Duke met only once during the regular season, and that game ended up resulting in a 76-65 home win for the Blue Devils. This, however, is a different Hokies team that we are seeing in Brooklyn, as they are looking like the team of destiny after a win at the buzzer against the Clemson Tigers in the second round. 

Since that game, Virginia Tech has earned easy wins over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and North Carolina Tar Heels. The Hokies are playing great defense and they’re lighting it up from three. That’s a dangerous combination for anybody, but it’s especially terrifying for a Blue Devils team that is 0-3 against the spread over its last three games. 

Duke had a lot of trouble in its win over the Miami Hurricanes on Friday, and Virginia Tech is actually a worse matchup for Coach K’s team. While the Hurricanes are pretty loaded on the wing, the Hokies are similarly talented at guard and forward. However, Virginia Tech has a better big man than Miami in Keve Aluma. Aluma had 18 points in the win over the Tar Heels, and he’s going to give the Blue Devils some trouble with his ability to either pop out for jumpers as a screener or dive and finish around the basket. 

Also, if Duke isn’t closing out on shooters, guys like Nahiem Alleyne, Hunter Cattoor, Darius Maddox and Storm Murphy will make them pay. Alleyne, Cattoor and Murphy combined to hit only three triples against North Carolina, but they’re call capable of getting hot in a hurry. Meanwhile, Maddox was the hero against the Tigers, and he has taken it to another level since. He had 20 points off the bench to help Virginia Tech beat North Carolina. 

The one x-factor in this game will be whether or not the Hokies can contain Paolo Banchero without sending help. Banchero, who is going to be one of the top picks in the 2022 NBA Draft, had 18 points and 11 rebounds against Miami. The Hurricanes also had to keep an extra eye on him, which allowed AJ Griffin to go for 21 points. Griffin is one of the best shooters on the planet, so the Hokies can’t leave him open. 

Prediction: Virginia Tech +6 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

This total is up to 136.5 or 137 in most places, but you can still get it at 136. And either way, the Over is still the right play in this championship game. These teams combined to score 141 points when they met back on December 22, and they have now scored at least 140 in each of their last six meetings. 

With Virginia Tech being 23rd in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (all efficiency stats from KenPom.com) and Duke being fifth in the country in that metric, it’s clear these teams can both put the ball in the bucket. With that in mind, you won’t want to overthink this one — especially with the Blue Devils struggling on the defensive end. 

The Over also happens to be 10-3 in the last 13 games the Hokies have played against teams with winning percentages of 60.0% or higher. On top of that, it’s 10-4-1 in their last 15 neutral-court games. Meanwhile, the Over has hit in the last five games that Duke has played and it’s also 5-2 in the last seven games in which the Blue Devils were favored on a neutral court. 

Prediction: Over 136 (-110) 

Best bet

While Duke is now an impressive 28-5 straight up on the year, the team is just 17-15-1 against the spread. This squad doesn’t always show up in the way the oddsmakers expect it to, and the Blue Devils are really struggling on the defensive end lately. Duke has allowed 83.0 points per game over its last three contests, and the team now hosts a Virginia Tech squad that’s elite offensively. This Hokies team could potentially light it up here, and they’re not bad on the defensive end either. They’re 60th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, and they’re going to be the hungrier team in this one. 

Duke happens to be just 8-17 ATS when facing teams with winning percentages between 60.0% and 80.0% over the last two seasons. The Blue Devils have won those games by an average of only 2.9 points. With this Duke team not always being at its best against good competition, you should be alarmed about how they’ll play against a hot, feisty Virginia Tech squad. 

Taking the points is the smart play in this game, and it’s worth sprinkling on the moneyline. 

Pick: Virginia Tech +6 (-110) 

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