Winners of just three games in 22 tries, the Washington Wizards head to Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse to face the 21-4 Cleveland Cavaliers in an epic matchup of polar opposites.
My Wizards vs. Cavaliers predictions expect the home team to dominate and cover a massive spread. Read my NBA picks to see why you should take the Cavs and the points.
Wizards vs Cavaliers prediction
My best bet
Cleveland Cavaliers -17 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
This is the biggest spread that either team has faced this season, but I’m taking the Cleveland Cavaliers and the points at home when the team with the NBA’s best record faces the team with the NBA’s worst.
The Cavs have beaten the Washington Wizards six straight times over the last two seasons. Of those six games, four were Cleveland wins by at least 19 points. Washington kept it within nine or fewer points in two games at Washington last season, but this Wizards team is worse than last season’s, and this game is in Cleveland.
The Cavs have a +9.9 point differential this season, which is third-best in the NBA. Cleveland’s +13.1 point differential at home is second-best in the Association. Washington is -16.2 overall (worst) and -16.6 on the road (second-worst).
Of Washington’s 19 losses, 12 have been by 17 or more points. Cleveland has the second-most 17-point wins this season with seven. Three of the Wizards’ last four games have been losses by 28 points or more.
The Wizards finally snapped a 16-game losing streak with an inexplicable victory over the Nuggets last weekend before suffering a blowout loss to the Grizzlies the following day.
Washington’s already weak roster will be without Kyle Kuzma and Malcolm Brogdon, leaving young and inexperienced players to take on the No. 1 seed in the East on the road. This has all the makings of a monster blowout.
Wizards vs Cavaliers same-game parlay
Cavaliers -17
Jordan Poole Under 19.5 points
Donovan Mitchell Over 24.5 points
Jordan Poole is averaging better than 20 points per game this season, and he’s hit the Over in 12 of 20 games. Despite that production, I’m confidently backing the Under on his points prop tonight.
Over his last eight, Poole has averaged just 17.8 points and hit the Over only three times. He’s scored fewer than 10 points in three games and 13 or fewer in five. Over his last six against the Cavs, Poole has averaged just 11.3 points, which includes point totals of eight, two, and zero. Poole’s lone Over came in a 31-point eruption at home.
The Cavs allow the 11th-fewest points per game overall, and they’ve allowed the seventh-fewest points to opposing point guards across the last seven games. Poole’s sporadic production, Cleveland’s strong defense, and the potential for a negative game script set this one up perfectly for the Under.
Donovan Mitchell is riding a mini two-game slump in which he’s scored 18 and 12 points, but he’s in a phenomenal bounce-back spot tonight. Spida has hit the Over on this line in 11 of 24 games this season, including once in two games against Washington.
The Wizards allow the most points per game on the road and overall this season. That includes the eighth-most points to opposing SGs. Prior to his two-game slump, Mitchell bounced back nicely after each sub-20-point scoring effort.
In his first five games scoring under 20 points, Mitchell averaged 28 points in the games that directly followed. I’m expecting him to get back on track against the league’s worst defense tonight.
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Wizards vs Cavaliers odds
Wizards vs Cavaliers live odds
Wizards vs Cavaliers opening odds
- Spread: Washington +17.5 (-110) | Cleveland -17.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Washington (+1100) | Cleveland (-2500)
- Over/Under: Over 230.5 (-110) | Under 230.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Wizards vs Cavaliers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Washington is 3-19 straight up and just 6-15-1 ATS this season.
- Cleveland lost its last game, but the team is 4-1 straight up and ATS across its last five and 21-4 straight up and 18-7 ATS on the season.
- The Wizards have hit the Over in four of their last five and are 12-10 to the Over this season.
- The Cavaliers have hit the Over in three straight and in 16 of 25 games overall.
Wizards vs Cavaliers trend
Cleveland is 7-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite, including 3-0 as a favorite of 13 points or more. Find more NBA betting trends for Wizards vs. Cavaliers.
How to watch Wizards vs Cavaliers
| Location: | Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Friday, 12-12-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Monumental Sports Network, FanDuel Sports Network - Ohio |
Wizards vs Cavaliers latest injuries
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