Down a number of key players, the Golden State Warriors snapped a five-game losing streak with a monster win over the second-place Houston Rockets on Thursday. They’ll look to build on that performance and add another win when the Timberwolves — winners of three straight — visit Chase Center tonight.
My Timberwolves vs. Warriors predictions expect Anthony Edwards and Steph Curry to play great basketball in a matchup that should be highly competitive.
Read my NBA picks to see why you should take the Over on Ant-Man’s rebound prop and Curry’s scoring line.
Timberwolves vs Warriors prediction
My best bet
Anthony Edwards Over 5.5 rebounds (+110 at bet365)
My analysis
Anthony Edwards is averaging 5.5 rebounds per game this season, and he’s hit the Over in 10 of 21 games this season. That includes five of 10 on the road. He’s averaged 6.8 boards across his last six outings and hit the Over in four of them, including two straight.
Golden State has allowed the fourth-most rebounds to opponents this season, including the third-most at home, making this an excellent matchup for an already-productive rebounder who’s averaged 5.6 rebounds since 2022-23.
Edwards averaged 5.1 rebounds per game over his last eight against the Warriors, hitting the Over four times and racking up at least five rebounds five times. Edwards has the fourth-most total rebounds and fifth-most rebounds per game among guards over the last two seasons.
The Warriors have been even friendlier to opposing rebounders over their last 10, surrendering the third-most total rebounds and most defensive rebounds. Golden State is the third-shortest team in the Association by average height, which bodes well for the big-bodied Edwards at 6’4, 225 pounds.
Edwards is a strong rebounder for a guard, and he’s hit the Over in 101 of 179 games played since the start of the 2022-23 campaign. That’s good for 56.4% of his games, yet this prop comes in with plus-money odds, making it a tremendous value as a straight bet and certainly a beneficial add to our three-leg parlay.
Timberwolves vs Warriors same-game parlay
Anthony Edwards Over 5.5 rebounds
Steph Curry Over 23.5 points
Under 216.5
The Minnesota Timberwolves have done a great job locking down opponents this season, but someone’s got to score for Golden State, and Steph Curry’s points line is set way too low. He’s averaging just 22.6 points per game this season, which is a big departure from the many, high-scoring seasons he’s had in recent years. He has turned it up as of late, averaging 25 points across his last three and going for at least 23 in all of them. At home, he’s averaged 23.8 points and 4.8 triples on 53/50/94 shooting splits, and on the road, he’s averaged only 22 points and 3.9 three-pointers on 43/38/95 splits.
Curry rested on Thursday for the first leg of Golden State’s back-to-back set, so he should be energized in this one, especially after his team snapped a five-game losing streak in his absence. Over the last four seasons, Curry has faced Minnesota 11 times, hit the Over in nine of them, and averaged 29 points along the way. This is an easy Over, as I expect the Chef to get cookin’ at home.
Minnesota’s defense has been stellar all season, ranking sixth in defensive rating at 108.6. Over the last five games, the Wolves have been even better, sporting the best defensive rating at a tremendous 97.2. Minnesota’s offense, however, has sputtered with a 105.2 offensive rating in that span, good for 26th in the Association. Golden State has struggled to score as of late and ranks 24th in defensive rating at just 107.1 across its last five. Minnesota has hit the Over in three straight and five of seven, while Golden State has done so in four straight and eight of nine. This one is set up to be a low-scoring game in the Bay, and I’m backing the Under, despite it falling by four points since opening at 220.5 on Thursday.
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Timberwolves vs Warriors odds
Timberwolves vs Warriors live odds
Timberwolves vs Warriors opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota +1 (-115) | Golden State -1 (-105)
- Moneyline: Minnesota -105 | Golden State -115
- Over/Under: Over 217.5 (-110) | Under 217.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Timberwolves vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis
- Minnesota has won three straight and covered twice in that span, bringing the team’s straight-up record to 11-10 and its ATS record to 8-13.
- Golden State is just 1-5 straight up and 2-3-1 ATS across its last six, and the team is 13-8 straight up and 12-8-1 ATS on the season.
- The Timberwolves have hit the Under in three straight and are 11-10 to the Over through 21 games.
- The Warriors have hit the Under four times in a row, and the Dubs are 10-11 to the Under this season.
Timberwolves vs Warriors trend
Minnesota has won seven of its last 10 head-to-head matchups with Golden State, including a 3-0 sweep last season. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Warriors.
How to watch Timberwolves vs Warriors
| Location: | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Friday, 12-6-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Timberwolves vs Warriors latest injuries
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