The Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks have each won three in a row, but only one of them can extend their win streak and advance to the semifinals of the NBA Cup with a victory at Paycom Center tonight.
My Mavericks vs. Thunder predictions expect Luka Doncic to stuff the stat sheet against a familiar opponent.
Read my NBA picks to see why you should take a chance on Doncic’s plus-money combo prop tonight.
Mavericks vs Thunder prediction
My best bet
Luka Doncic triple-double (+550 at bet365)
My analysis
After a relatively slow start, Luka Doncic has turned it on.
In his first 14 games of the season, Doncic averaged 28.1 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 7.6 assists with no triple-doubles. In five games since returning from an absence, he’s boosted his numbers to 31 points, 10.5 rebounds and 9.5 assists with two triple-doubles.
There’s no question Doncic — one of the NBA’s premier scorers — will score at least 10 points. OKC has been hammered on the glass this season, surrendering the most rebounds per game to opponents. Doncic should have no problem reaching double-digit boards either. His assist numbers are the lynchpin of this prop, but his recent success in that category inspires confidence tonight.
Doncic has averaged 27.4 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 7.5 assists at home this season. Those numbers are substantially better on the road at 30.4 points, 9 rebounds, and 8.8 assists. Playing in Oklahoma City only sweetens the appeal.
Over his last 13 regular season and playoff games against the Thunder, Doncic has averaged 27.6 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 9.9 assists while posting six triple-doubles.
Luka's recent hot streak and success against the Thunder in recent seasons make this an appealing prop. Taking into consideration how often he's reached this statistical milestone and the profitable odds offered at bet365, this one is a no-brainer.
Mavericks vs Thunder same-game parlay
Luka Doncic triple-doible
Isaiah Hartenstein double-double
Dereck Lively 7+ rebounds
Isaiah Hartenstein has stepped into a monster workload with Chet Holmgren out, and the former has averaged 11.8 points and 12.8 rebounds across his first eight games with the Oklahoma City Thunder.
That includes six double-doubles and seven games with at least 10 boards. The Dallas Mavericks allow the ninth-most paint points and 11th-most rebounds to opponents, offering a favorable matchup to Hartenstein.
Dallas may be without top rebounder PJ Washington and frontcourt contributors Naji Marshall and Maxi Kleber, giving Hartenstein yet another advantage.
Dereck Lively's rebound total is set at 7.5 for -135 odds, but I’m happy to go one board lower for significantly shorter -200 odds. Because of the long odds on Doncic’s triple-double prop, I’m more comfortable taking Lively’s alt line here.
The second-year big man is averaging 7.5 boards in 2024-25, and he’s hit the Over in 11 of 19 games. Over his last nine, he’s averaged 8.2 boards and grabbed at least seven in six contests.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Mavericks vs Thunder odds
Mavericks vs Thunder live odds
Mavericks vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Dallas +4.5 (-110) | Oklahoma City -4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Dallas +155 | Oklahoma City -185
- Over/Under: Over 231 (-110) | Under 231 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Mavericks vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- Dallas has won five of six and covered in three of those, bringing the team’s record to 16-8 straight up and 14-9-1 ATS.
- Oklahoma City has won and covered in three straight, and the team is 18-5 straight up and 14-7-2 ATS.
- The Mavericks have hit the Over in two straight and three of four, bringing their record to 13-10-1 to the Over.
- The Thunder have also gone Over in three of four, and the team is 11-12 to the Under on the season.
Mavericks vs Thunder trend
Dallas is 6-4 against the Thunder in the last 10 head-to-head matchups after defeating OKC 4-2 in the Western Conference semifinals last season. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Thunder.
How to watch Mavericks vs Thunder
| Location: | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date: | Tuesday, 12-10-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Mavericks vs Thunder latest injuries
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