The Minnesota Timberwolves and Los Angeles Lakers are each coming off narrow, one-point victories ahead of their clash at the Target Center tonight at 8 p.m. ET.
My Lakers vs. Timberwolves predictions expect Anthony Davis to keep rolling against Minnesota.
Read my NBA picks to see why you should bet the Over on the Brow's combo prop on Monday, December 2.
Lakers vs Timberwolves prediction
My best bet
Anthony Davis Over 41.5 points + rebounds + assists (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Anthony Davis has been excellent this season, averaging 28.6 points, 11.5 rebounds and 3.2 assists. He opened the season on a high note, going for 36/16/4 against the Minnesota Timberwolves, and I expect him to put up big numbers against them again tonight.
For as good as Davis has been since 2022, he’s been even better against Minnesota. Across his last seven meetings with the Wolves, he’s averaged 32.4 points, 14.7 rebounds and 3.8 assists. He’s hit the Over on this line in all seven matchups.
Though the Timberwolves’ defense has been a Top-10 unit in points per game allowed, Minnesota has been simply middle-of-the-pack against opposing centers. The Wolves have allowed 40.3 PRAs to opposing big men this season. That includes the 11th-most points and ninth-most assists. The Wolves have surrendered the second-fewest rebounds to opposing centers, but I'm not worried about that. Davis has excelled as a rebounder against Minnesota, pulling down at least 13 boards in five of his last seven against them.
Davis will face three-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, but Gobert’s 2024 numbers don’t paint the picture of a tremendous defender. Among centers, Gobert ranks 33rd in defensive rating. Julius Randle (playing PF, but qualifies as a center) ranks 61st, and backup big man Naz Reid ranks 46th.
This isn't an intimidating frontcourt for opposing bigs. Over Minnesota's last three games, Ivica Zubac went for 16/13/1, Domantas Sabonis put up 27/12/5 and Alperen Sengun finished with a 22/10/11 triple-double. All three finished above their season averages in PRAs.
Davis can capitalize on a defense that has been much better on the perimeter than in the interior. The Wolves have allowed the seventh-most points in the paint this season but just the third-fewest three-pointers made.
Davis has averaged just 41 PRAs at home this season, but he’s posted 46.3 on the road. He’s hit the Over in 12 of 19 overall and seven of nine on the road. The Los Angeles Lakers' star big man has had great success against Minnesota, but we’re getting this line and the -110 odds at a steep discount, making this an easy pick.
Lakers vs Timberwolves same-game parlay
Anthony Davis Over 41.5 pts+reb+ast
Lakers +7.5
Julius Randle Over 31.5 pts+reb+ast
The Lakers are 2-1 following three straight losses, but they’re being spotted 7.5 points against a Wolves team that has won just once in its last four games.
Los Angeles is just 8-12 against the spread this season, but Minnesota is 6-13. The Wolves are just 2-8 ATS at home as the favorite and 3-5 ATS when favored by 7.5 points or more this season.
The Lakers are 2-1 ATS with no rest and 3-0 straight up in that situation. The Lakers are 4-3 ATS in their last seven at Minnesota, and LA has covered in three straight. That includes two games as the underdog. Los Angeles beat Minnesota outright in the opener, and there’s no reason to believe the Lakers won’t keep this one close.
Like Davis, Julius Randle has posted strong numbers against tonight's opponent in recent seasons. Randle has averaged a healthy 27 points, 11.6 boards, and 4.8 dimes across his last eight against the Lakers, hitting the Over on this line seven times.
The lone exception was his Minnesota debut on October 22. Randle had an underwhelming first appearance for his new team, but he’s posted solid numbers since then. The big man has hit the Over in 11 of 18 games since the opener and averaged slightly more PRAs at home than on the road. Randle has hit the Over in six of 10 games at home, and he should get there again tonight against a team allowing the ninth-most points and fourth-most assists.
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Lakers vs Timberwolves odds
Lakers vs Timberwolves live odds
Lakers vs Timberwolves opening odds
- Spread: Los Angeles +6.5 (-110) | Minnesota -6.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +210 | Minnesota -260
- Over/Under: Over 224.5 (-110) | Under 224.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Lakers vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis
- Los Angeles has covered only twice in its last 10 games, bringing the team’s record to 8-12 ATS.
- Minnesota has failed to cover in three straight and five of six, and the team is just 6-13 ATS this season.
- The Lakers have hit the Under in five straight, and L.A. is 9-11 to the Under through 20 games.
- The Timberwolves are 11-8 to the Over this season despite hitting the Under in three of the last five.
Lakers vs Timberwolves trend
The Timberwolves have won six of the last 10 head-to-head matchups with the Lakers, but L.A. has won four of the last five in Minnesota. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Timberwolves.
How to watch Lakers vs Timberwolves
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Monday, 12-2-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBA TV |
Lakers vs Timberwolves latest injuries
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