The Chicago Bulls have a quick down-and-back to Texas, visiting the San Antonio Spurs on Thursday night.
Both teams have struggled to string together wins in recent games, but San Antonio is set as a short home favorite for this non-conference contest despite playing without superstar Victor Wembanyama. That means the Spurs need others to step up, including shooting guard Devin Vassell, as I explain in my Bulls vs. Spurs predictions and best NBA picks for December 5.
Bulls vs Spurs prediction
My best bet
Devin Vassell Over 17.5 points (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
With Victor Wembanyama out due to a sore back, the San Antonio Spurs will shuffle their lineup and lean into super-sub Devin Vassell a lot more on Thursday night.
Vassell came off the bench in Tuesday’s loss to the Phoenix Suns, erupting for 25 points on 10-for-14 shooting in 28 minutes. The 6-foot-5 guard put up 21 points in 24 minutes the game prior and will continue to see his floor time and touches peak against the Chicago Bulls.
The Bulls don’t offer much in a way of opposition. Chicago is 26th in advanced defensive rating while giving up almost 122 points per road game — second-worst in the NBA. The Bulls have been bullied by opposing guards as well, allowing the sixth-most points to the position.
The absence of Wembanyama would seem like a break for most defenses, but when the 7-foot-4 unicorn is out of the lineup, San Antonio goes small and pushes the pace.
Wemby sat out three games between November 16 and 21 and the Spurs turned up the tempo, upping their pace rating to 102.67 in those outings (vs. 99.34 pace rating on the season).
Chicago not only stinks at defending teams in transition, allowing the third-most points per play to transition offenses, but also sits 23rd in fastbreak points allowed at 16.9 per game.
Vassell was also out of action during that three-game “Wemby-less” stretch for the Spurs but thrives in the fast open floor. He leads the team in fastbreak points per game (2.6) and has run defenders out of gym the last two outings, averaging 5.5 fastbreak points in those showings.
Player projections for Vassell range from 17.6 to close to 21 points versus Chicago tonight, with my number coming in at 19 points. That’s north of his scoring prop of 17.5 O/U, especially if Vassell can hit the higher ceiling given the uptick in involvement and defensive matchup.
Bulls vs Spurs same-game parlay
Devin Vassell Over 17.5 points
Chris Paul Over 11.5 points
Spurs team total Over 118.5
Vassell has had the hot hand the last two games and will thrive in the quicker pace with Wemby out.
Chris Paul will be behind the wheel of the Spurs’ uptick in tempo. He scored above his season average with Wembanyama out of action in November.
The Bulls are a bad defense and San Antonio sees its pace rating get pumped up without Wemby in the lineup.
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Bulls vs Spurs odds
Bulls vs Spurs live odds
Bulls vs Spurs opening odds
- Spread: Chicago +2 | San Antonio -2
- Moneyline: Chicago +110 | San Antonio -130
- Over/Under: Over 232.5 | Under 232.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Bulls vs Spurs spread and Over/Under analysis
- With Wembanyama sitting out, San Antonio opened as a 2-point home favorite. That line has bounced between -2 and -2.5 at some books. Covers Consensus shows 75% of picks taking the Spurs on Thursday.
- The Over/Under opened as short as 232.5 points and has been bet up as high as 237 points before buyback on the Under dropped the number to 236.5 O/U. According to Covers Consensus, 59% of total picks are on the Over.
- Chicago will be without guard Lonzo Ball (rest) as well as Coby White and forward Patrick White. Guard Josh Giddy is a game-time decision with an ankle injury. This trip to San Antonio is a one-off road stop before flying back home to host Indiana tomorrow night.
Bulls vs Spurs trend
Chicago is 1-7 SU and ATS against Western Conference competition this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Bulls vs. Spurs.
How to watch Bulls vs Spurs
| Location: | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX |
| Date: | Thursday, 12-5-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CHSN, FDSNSW |
Bulls vs Spurs latest injuries
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