The NBA Cup Final goes tonight in Las Vegas and it features the Milwaukee Bucks taking on the Oklahoma City Thunder.
With the entire NBA world watching, my Bucks vs. Thunder predictions expect Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to rise to the occasion and deliver a masterful performance.
Read more in my NBA picks for Tuesday, December 17.
Bucks vs Thunder prediction
My best bet
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 43.5 points+rebounds+assists (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is enjoying another productive campaign with the Oklahoma City Thunder, averaging 30.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 6.2 assists. He’s been excellent on the season overall, but he’s been even better as of late.
Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 33.1 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 6.3 assists across his last nine games, hitting the Over six times in that span. That includes two straight games with 44 or more PRAs, reaching that mark in the NBA Cup quarterfinals and semifinals.
Oklahoma City’s star point guard has been phenomenal through six games of NBA Cup play — averaging 32.2 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 6.5 assists — hitting the Over on this line three times. With more at stake than a regular season game, he’s stepped up his play, and I expect that to be the case tonight.
The Milwaukee Bucks have allowed the most points, second-most rebounds, and 43.9 PRAs to opposing PGs this season, setting up SGA with a juicy matchup. Shai has hit the Over on this prop in nine of 25 games and recorded exactly 43 PRAs two more times.
While he’s hit the Over in less than half of his games played this season, he’s reached that mark in 67% of his last nine. I’m not betting against SGA tonight with a championship on the line and a quality matchup on tap. This is an easy Over.
Bucks vs Thunder same-game parlay
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 43.5 points+rebounds+assists
Thunder moneyline
Over 215.5
If this game had been played four weeks ago, I would have hammered the Thunder and the points, but Milwaukee has turned things around in a big way.
After a 4-9 start, the Bucks’ outlook was dreary, but the team is now 10- 2 in its last 12 games and has a chance to give “Chill Guy” Darvin Ham his second straight NBA Cup Championship.
I like Oklahoma City’s depth, youth, and defensive prowess to guide it to victory, but the Bucks can keep this one close. Picking OKC to win outright is a much safer wager than betting the spread.
Both teams have hit the Under in 14 of 25 games this season, but this point total is set far too low to bet the Under. Over their last 10 games, the Thunder and Bucks rank inside the Top 9 in offensive rating.
In that span, the Thunder have posted 117.7 points per game, and the Bucks have posted 116.3. I’m not anticipating a monster point total, but these teams have been too good on offense to bet the Under.
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Bucks vs Thunder odds
Bucks vs Thunder live odds
Bucks vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Milwaukee +5 (-110) | Oklahoma City -5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Milwaukee +165 | Oklahoma City -200
- Over/Under: Over 214.5 (-110) | Under 214.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Bucks vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- Milwaukee has won eight of its last 10 and covered in just five, bringing the team’s record to 14-11 straight up and 10-14-1 ATS.
- Oklahoma City has won nine of 10 and covered in seven, and the team is 20-5 straight up and 16-7-2 ATS this season.
- The Bucks are 2-3 to the Under across their last five and 11-14 to the Under this season.
- The Thunder are 1-3 to the Under over their last four, and the team has hit the Under in 14 of 25 games.
Bucks vs Thunder trend
Milwaukee is 8-2 straight up and 5-5 ATS across its last 10 head-to-head meetings with the Thunder. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Thunder.
How to watch Bucks vs Thunder
| Location: | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Tuesday, 12-17-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Bucks vs Thunder latest injuries
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